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The future of mobile shopping: The interaction between lead users and technological trajectories in the Japanese market

机译：移动购物的未来：日本市场主要用户与技术轨迹之间的互动

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摘要

This paper uses the concepts of lead users and technological trajectories and the current status of mobile shopping in Japan to forecast the future of mobile shopping. In interviews with more than 100 Japanese and foreign firms between 2000 and 2005, the author investigated the impact of a number of technological trajectories on mobile shopping applications that are suggested to be promising ones based on the behavior of lead users. Push-based Internet mail and other key services that are not yet available in Western markets were the initial drivers of the market for mobile shopping in Japan between 2001 and 2003. Currently, the fastest growing market for mobile shopping in Japan involves the integration of mobile sites with other media such as magazines and radio and television programs where these other media compensate for the small screens of mobile phones. This paper forecasts the impact of improvements along a number of technological trajectories on the integration of mobile sites with other media.
机译：本文使用主要用户和技术轨迹的概念以及日本移动购物的现状来预测移动购物的未来。在2000年至2005年间对100多家日本和外国公司进行的采访中，作者调查了许多技术轨迹对移动购物应用程序的影响，根据主要用户的行为，这些技术路线被认为是很有前途的。在2001年至2003年期间，西方市场尚未推出的基于推送的Internet邮件和其他关键服务是日本移动购物市场的最初推动者。目前，日本移动购物增长最快的市场涉及移动电话的集成。具有其他媒体（例如杂志，广播和电视节目）的网站，这些其他媒体可以补偿手机的小屏幕。本文预测了许多技术轨迹上的改进对移动站点与其他媒体集成的影响。

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