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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence
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Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence

机译：类德尔菲程序中的判断变化：多数人的影响，专业知识和信心的作用

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摘要

This study investigates individual opinion change and judgmental accuracy in Delphi-like groups. Results reveal that the accuracy of judgmental probability forecasts increases over Delphi rounds (in terms of proportion correct and appropriateness of confidence) when statistical summaries or written rationales are provided from other members of an individual's nominal group, but does not increase in a control iteration condition (without feedback). Additionally, subjects who gave more appropriate probability forecasts on the first round exhibited least opinion change, although measures of confidence were unrelated to opinion change. Results also show that majority opinion exerts strong opinion pull on minority opinion even when the majority favours an incorrect answer (irrespective of the nature of feedback provided). The implications of these results for the utility and conduct of the Delphi technique are discussed, in particular, with respect to selecting panellists and choosing an appropriate feedback format.
机译：这项研究调查了德尔菲式群体中个人意见的变化和判断的准确性。结果表明，当从个人名义组的其他成员提供统计摘要或书面依据时，判断概率预测的准确性会在Delphi轮次中提高（就比例正确性和置信度而言），但在控制迭代条件下不会提高（无反馈）。此外，尽管置信度与观点变化无关，但在第一轮中给出更适当概率预测的受试者的观点变化最少。结果还表明，即使多数人赞成错误的答案（无论所提供反馈的性质如何），多数人意见也会对少数人意见施加强大的吸引力。讨论了这些结果对Delphi技术的实用性和实施​​的影响，尤其是在选择小组成员和选择适当的反馈格式方面。

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