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Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

机译：技术期货分析：走向领域与新方法的融合

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摘要

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used―from industrial to information and molecular―make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.
机译：分析未来技术及其后果的多种形式共存，例如技术情报，预测，路线图，评估和远见。所有这些技术都适合我们称为技术期货分析（TFA）的领域。这些方法已经相当成熟，几乎没有关于方法和过程的信息交换和共享。在使用所有这些方法方面都有丰富的经验，但是使用这些方法的技术的变化-从工业到信息和分子-使得有必要重新考虑TFA方法。需要探索新方法以利用信息资源和复杂系统的新方法。对流程的检查揭示了提高TFA对各种潜在用户（从公司经理到国家政策制定者）​​的实用性的方法。在几种TFA形式之间共享观点并从其他领域引入新方法，应推进TFA方法和流程，以更好地为技术管理以及科学研究政策提供信息。

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