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Better technology forecasting using systematic innovation methods

机译：使用系统创新方法更好地预测技术

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An evolved version of the Soviet-originated Theory of Inventive Problem Solving, TRIZ, contains a series of generically predictable technology and business evolution trends uncovered from the systematic analysis of over 2 million patents, academic journals and business texts. The current state of the art―recorded for the first time together in this paper―now bring the total number of generic technical trends to over 30, and the number of business trends to over 20. The paper describes some of the newly discovered trends, and their incorporation into a design method that allows individuals and businesses to first establish the relative maturity of their current systems, and then, more importantly, to identify areas where 'evolutionary potential' exists. The paper introduces this concept of evolutionary potential―defined as the difference between the relative maturity of the current system, and the point where it has reached the limits of each of the evolution trends―through a number of case study examples focused on the design and evolution of complex systems.
机译：苏联起源的发明问题解决理论（TRIZ）的演进版本包含一系列可预测的技术和业务发展趋势，这些趋势是通过对200万多项专利，学术期刊和商业文本进行系统分析发现的。目前，该技术已首次在本文中首次记录，它使通用技术趋势的总数达到30多种，业务趋势的总数超过20种。本文描述了一些新发现的趋势，并将其纳入一种设计方法，该方法允许个人和企业首先确定其当前系统的相对成熟度，然后更重要的是确定存在“进化潜力”的领域。本文通过一些专注于设计和开发的案例研究实例，介绍了进化潜力的概念-定义为当前系统的相对成熟度与达到每个进化趋势极限的点之间的差异。复杂系统的演变。

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