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Challenging the Human Crisis: 'The Trilemma'

机译：挑战人类危机：“三难”

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摘要

The great increase in world population in the coming century will result in a human crisis of worldwide proportions. A new concept for describing and proposing solutions to this crisis, called the Trilemma, is described by the authors. To feed large and growing populations, humankind is now being forced to make the difficult choice between producing sufficient food for the world population and preserving the environment, or generating economic growth, requiring the consumption of energy and natural resources. These difficult choices present the Trilemma, a new concept that is composed of three dimensions: economic growth, resources such as energy and food, and the environment. None of these three dimensions can be optimized individually as they are mutually interdependent. This paper describes a possible world energy condition in the 21st century. Three scenarios of this energy consumption are presented and compared with the possible energy supply at that time. This supply is estimated from the extrapolation of the renewable energy development of the past and the possible fossil fuel supply. The comparison of the energy supply and the energy consumption indicates that the annual rate of economic growth in the developed region would be only 1 % if the gross national product (GNP) per capita of the developing region increases gradually from 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions in 1990, to 1/10 in 2020, and finally to 1/3 in 2100. Another possibility is that if the GNP per capita of the developing region remains 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions between 1990 and 2100, the economic growth rate in the developed region could be as large as 3%. In the latter case, an energy shortage would develop in the middle of the 21st century, even if the fast breeder reactor were fully operational by the year 2030. Energy technological developments in Japan are also described as a part of the possible countermeasures against the Trilemma.
机译：即将到来的世纪，世界人口的大量增加将导致世界范围的人类危机。作者介绍了一个描述和提出解决此危机的方法的新概念，称为三难。为了养活大量不断增长的人口，人类现在被迫在为世界人口生产足够的粮食与保护环境，或促进经济增长，需要消耗能源和自然资源之间做出艰难的选择。这些困难的选择提出了三难困境，这是一个由三个维度组成的新概念：经济增长，能源和粮食等资源以及环境。由于这三个维度相互依赖，因此无法单独对其进行优化。本文描述了21世纪可能出现的世界能源状况。提出了这种能耗的三种情况，并与当时的能源供应进行了比较。根据过去可再生能源发展的推断和可能的化石燃料供应来估算该供应。能源供应和能源消耗的比较表明，如果发展中地区人均国民生产总值从国民生产总值的1/26逐渐增加，那么发达地区的年经济增长率将仅为1％。 1990年达到发达地区的1/10，到2100年最终达到1/3。另一种可能性是，如果发展中国家的人均国民生产总值在1990年至2004年之间仍然是发达地区国民生产总值的1/26 2100年，发达地区的经济增长率可能高达3％。在后一种情况下，即使快速增殖反应堆在2030年之前全面投入运行，能源短缺也会在21世纪中叶出现。日本的能源技术发展也被描述为对抗三难困境的可能对策中的一部分。

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