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Predicting Sustainable Economic Welfare - Analysis and perspectives for Luxembourg based on energy policy scenarios

机译：预测可持续的经济福利-基于能源政策情景的卢森堡分析与展望

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摘要

Ambitious energy policies have been established in Luxembourg, which has one of the highest Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per capita in the world but still much depends on imported fuels and electricity. Born as an alternative to GDP, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) is applied in this study as a framework to predict socio-economic and environmental performances of Luxembourg in relation to energy policy scenarios. The ISEW for the 1960-2010 timeframe is firstly calculated and compared with GDP in order to disclose the impact of factors differently considered by the two indices, e.g. consumption trends, equity, air pollution, carbon emissions, consumer durables expenditures, investments, etc. A forecasting model to predict the ISEW trend until 2030 is then proposed to assess the relevance of national energy policies. The analysis of historical time-series shows that the ISEW grows over time at much slower pace than GDP, mostly due to increases in defensive expenditures. This gap may decline in the future by implementing those energy policies, providing a slight but tangible recovery of the economic welfare over the next 10-15 years. Several insights are ultimately given on the benefits and drawbacks of using the ISEW framework to assess long-term sustainability issues.
机译：卢森堡制定了雄心勃勃的能源政策，该国是世界人均国内生产总值（GDP）最高的国家之一，但仍然很大程度上依赖于进口燃料和电力。可持续经济福利指数（ISEW）是GDP的替代品，它在本研究中用作预测卢森堡与能源政策情景相关的社会经济和环境绩效的框架。首先计算1960-2010年时间的ISEW，并将其与GDP进行比较，以揭示两个指数不同考虑的因素的影响，例如，消费趋势，公平性，空气污染，碳排放，耐用消费支出，投资等。然后提出一种预测ISEW趋势到2030年的预测模型，以评估国家能源政策的相关性。对历史时间序列的分析表明，随着时间的推移，ISEW的增长速度要比GDP增长慢得多，这主要是由于国防支出的增加。通过实施这些能源政策，这种差距在未来可能会缩小，从而在未来10至15年中实现经济福利的轻微但切实的恢复。最终对于使用ISEW框架评估长期可持续性问题的利弊给出了一些见解。

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