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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles
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Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles

机译：谁将推动向自动驾驶的过渡？对自动驾驶汽车未来影响的社会技术分析

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Automated driving is an emerging transport innovation whose future impact is increasingly studied. With this paper I want to show that such a literature misses a crucial point: which impacts automated driving will generate depends on the competition between different networks of innovators, each supporting its own approach to the integration of automated driving into the system of urban mobility.As technological, business and policy innovations are simultaneously at stake, a socio-technical approach is followed. In particular, socio-technical maps representing urban mobility in year 2040 are used to represent the results of three transition pathways towards automated driving, each being led by a different network of innovators. The first socio-technical map results from the ability of today incumbent automotive companies to integrate the suppliers of technologies and components for connected automated vehicles into their network, and to successfully lobby for public investments on vehicle-to-infrastructure technologies for long-haul mobility. No relevant changes in urban mobility are generated in this transition pathway, except for the diffusion and the peer-to-peer sharing of household electric automated vehicles. The second socio-technical map emerges from the cooperation between leaders of the internet and managers of shared and collective transport systems. This new network of innovators is able to gain support from multilevel policies that consider shared automated vehicles as the core element of diffused systems of integrated urban mobility. Impacts on urban mobility are positive, also because the strict regulation of household automated vehicles avoids any rebound effect. In the third socio-technical map, urban mobility is taken over by energy agents who integrate automated vehicles and smart grids. Such innovators foster a new political discourse on energy efficiency and sustainability, and eventually gain support from the public co-funding of national and international smart grids. In this scenario, unregulated pervasive rebound effects of automated driving may result from the limited attention paid by policies to the issue of urban quality and sustainable transportation.
机译：自动驾驶是一种新兴的交通运输创新，其对未来的影响日益受到研究。在本文中，我想表明，这样的文献缺少一个关键点：自动驾驶将产生的影响取决于不同创新者网络之间的竞争，每个创新者网络都支持将自己的自动驾驶技术集成到城市交通系统中的方法。由于技术，业务和政策创新同时受到威胁，因此采用了社会技术方法。尤其是，代表2040年城市机动性的社会技术地图被用来代表三种通向自动驾驶的过渡道路的结果，每种道路均由不同的创新者网络主导。最初的社会技术图是由于当今的汽车公司将互联自动车的技术和组件供应商整合到他们的网络中，并成功游说以公共投资进行车辆到基础设施技术以实现长途出行的能力而产生的。除了家用电动汽车的普及和点对点共享外，在这一过渡路径中，城市交通没有发生任何相关变化。第二种社会技术地图来自互联网领导人与共享和集体运输系统的管理者之间的合作。这个新的创新者网络能够从多级政策中获得支持，这些政策将共享自动驾驶汽车视为城市综合交通分散系统的核心要素。对城市出行的影响是积极的，这也是因为对家用自动驾驶汽车的严格监管避免了反弹的影响。在第三个社会技术地图中，城市交通由能源代理商接管，他们将自动车辆和智能电网整合在一起。这些创新者在能源效率和可持续性方面开辟了新的政治话题，并最终获得了国家和国际智能电网公共共同资助的支持。在这种情况下，自动驾驶不受控制的普遍反弹效应可能是由于政策对城市质量和可持续交通问题的关注有限。

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