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Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain

机译：华北平原土地利用竞争与土地可持续发展之间的权衡

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摘要

Using the Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and Dynamics of Land System (DLS) models, we simulated land-use structures and patterns in Shandong Province in 2025 under three scenarios: baseline, resource consumption, and green development. Compared with the situation in 2015, a slight decrease in grassland, cultivated, and unused land was evident under the green development scenario. Forest land cover remained basically unchanged, whereas water bodies and construction land increased slightly. Under the baseline and resource consumption scenarios, all of the above land-use types showed a decreasing trend apart from construction land, which rapidly increased. Changes in the land-use allocation pattern demonstrated overall consistency and local differences under these scenarios. Among them, most changes in construction and cultivated land occurred around cities, with changes in forests and grassland mainly distributed in the central and northeastern regions. Changes in water bodies and unused land mainly occurred in the northern Yellow River basin and in northeastern coastal areas. Local differences were evident under the green development scenario, with conversion of a small amount of cultivated land in the central region into forests and grassland, and transformation of a small area of cultivated land in the northeastern coastal area into water bodies. The study's findings provide a scientific projection of competitive land-use relations in Shandong Province over the next decade under different land expropriation price and regulation scenarios, which can guide policy formulation and the selection of pathways for achieving sustainable regional development.
机译：利用土地利用变化的可计算一般均衡（CGELUC）和土地系统动力学（DLS）模型，我们在基线，资源消耗和绿色发展这三种情景下模拟了2025年山东省的土地利用结构和格局。与2015年的情况相比，在绿色发展的情况下，草地，耕地和未使用的土地明显减少。林地覆盖率基本保持不变，水体和建设用地略有增加。在基准线和资源消耗情景下，除了建筑用地以外，上述所有土地利用类型均呈下降趋势，而建筑用地则迅速增加。在这些情况下，土地利用分配格局的变化表明了总体一致性和局部差异。其中，建设用地和耕地的变化大部分发生在城市附近，而森林和草地的变化主要分布在中部和东北地区。水体和未利用土地的变化主要发生在黄河流域北部和东北沿海地区。在绿色发展情景下，地方差异是显而易见的，中部地区的少量耕地转化为森林和草地，东北沿海地区的一小部分耕地转化为水体。该研究结果为未来十年山东省在不同的土地征收价格和监管情景下的竞争性土地利用关系提供了科学的预测，这可以指导政策制定和实现可持续区域发展的路径选择。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2019年第4期|36-46|共11页
  • 作者

    Jin Gui; Chen Kun; Wang Pei; Guo Baishu; Dong Yin; Yang Jun;

  • 作者单位

    Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China|Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;

    Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;

    Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China;

    China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Land-use competition and trade-offs; Scenarios; Simulation; CGELUC model; DLS model; North China Plain;

    机译：土地利用竞争与权衡;情景;模拟;CGELUC模型;DLS模型;华北平原;

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