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A bridging framework for studying transition pathways - From systems models to local action in the Swedish heating domain

机译：研究过渡路径的桥接框架-从系统模型到瑞典供热领域的局部行动

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摘要

Quantitative models of transitions, such as energy systems models and integrated assessment models, do not usually represent social processes, institutions and politics. Their view of societal transitions, along with the governance required to drive them, is therefore limited. Socio-technical systems approaches, in contrast, represent the social side but lack a quantitative view of the future system. This paper addresses this by bridging an energy systems model with socio-technical systems analysis and a local action study, analysing the future transition of the residential heating system in Sweden. The paper focuses on demand-side shifts that would drive a transition to a highly efficient, low-carbon heating system until 2050. A conceptual framework for bridging three approaches is introduced and applied. For example, niche-innovations identified in the socio-technical study are implemented as scenario options in the model. Landscape signals are external drivers of the scenario, and the regime study identifies barriers and governance requirements. The local action study provides insights into community attitudes affecting niches and regime change. Our results indicate that the linking of approaches is meaningful, in that it provides an enriched understanding of future systems change in many dimensions. Further research is required using a variety of models on a variety of domains or sectors to draw more generalizable lessons about bridging modelling and social science-based approaches for transition studies.
机译：转型的定量模型，例如能源系统模型和综合评估模型，通常不代表社会过程，制度和政治。因此，他们对社会转型的看法以及推动社会转型所需的治理受到了限制。相比之下，社会技术系统方法代表了社会方面，但缺乏对未来系统的定量观察。本文通过将能源系统模型与社会技术系统分析和地方行动研究联系起来，分析了瑞典住宅供暖系统的未来过渡，从而解决了这一问题。本文关注的是需求方转变，这将推动向高效，低碳供暖系统的过渡，直到2050年。引入并应用了一种桥接三种方法的概念框架。例如，在社会技术研究中确定的利基创新被用作模型中的方案选项。景观信号是该情景的外部驱动力，而政权研究则确定了障碍和治理要求。地方行动研究提供了对影响利基和政权更替的社区态度的见解。我们的结果表明，方法的链接是有意义的，因为它提供了对未来系统许多方面变化的丰富理解。需要在不同领域或领域使用各种模型进行进一步的研究，以得出关于桥接模型和基于社会科学的过渡研究方法的更一般化的教训。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2020年第2期|119260.1-119260.11|共11页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    Stockholm Environm Inst Box 24218 S-10451 Stockholm Sweden|KTH Royal Inst Technol Dept Sustainable Dev Sustainabil Sci & Engn Teknikringen 10b S-10044 Stockholm Sweden;

    Stockholm Environm Inst Box 24218 S-10451 Stockholm Sweden;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy; MLP; Multilevel perspective; Policy; Low carbon; Socio-technical;

    机译：能源;MLP;多层次视角;政策;低碳;社会技术;

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