2Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

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2Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

机译：2在荷兰和挪威的电动汽车激励方案的分析和测试

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Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knockout analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.

机译：使用动力总成技术过渡市场代理模型分析了荷兰和挪威过去和将来的电动汽车销售份额。该系统动力学模型已扩展到包括领先的挪威汽车市场，并已更新了有关政策激励措施的最新数据。讨论了三个模型验证测试：从2010年到2017年的过去行为的重现，政策敏感性和反馈环剔除分析。研究结果表明，要有必要对制造商的排放目标进行管制，以摆脱基于矿物燃料的汽车的新销售。只有强有力的激励措施才能使荷兰和挪威的零排放汽车获得较大的销售份额。

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《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2020年第2期|119847.1-119847.17|共17页
作者

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作者单位

European Commiss JRC Ispra Italy|Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res TNO Anna van Buerenpl 1 NL-2595 DA The Hague Netherlands;

European Commiss JRC Ispra Italy;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Electric vehicle; Automotive; System dynamics; Netherlands; Norway; Policy scenarios;

机译：电动汽车;汽车;系统动力学;荷兰;挪威;政策方案;

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2Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

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