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Topic modeling and technology forecasting for assessing the commercial viability of healthcare innovations

机译：评估医疗保健创新的商业可行性的主题建模与技术预测

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Developing technologies for a transfer from science to market is a key element of research-intensive organizations such as innovation management centers that work closely with inventors to commercialize their technological innovations. To advance the commercial viability of technological innovations, this paper proposes a framework that integrates topic modeling, survival analysis, and judgment of subject matter experts to forecast promising technologies using patents as data resources. Regarding the commercial viability of identified technologies, our empirical analysis focuses on patents and licensing data from a prominent innovation management center over a 20-year period. We are able to identify technologies that are statistically significant for predicting the likelihood and the time until a patent is commercialized, and suggest a way to assess their scope of technological impact. Our results contribute to the understanding of promising healthcare technologies and help R&D managers to develop the knowledge they need to advocate technologies in support of commercial returns.
机译：从科学转移到市场的发展技术是研究密集型组织的关键要素，如创新管理中心，与发明人密切合作，以将其技术创新商业化。为了推进技术创新的商业可行性，本文提出了一个框架，该框架整合了主题建模，生存分析和主题专家判断，以预测使用专利作为数据资源的有希望的技术。关于所确定的技术的商业可行性，我们的实证分析侧重于20年期间来自突出创新管理中心的专利和许可数据。我们能够识别在统计上有意义的技术，以预测可能性以及专利商业化的时间，并表明了评估其技术影响范围的方法。我们的成绩有助于了解有前途的医疗技术，并帮助研发管理人员培养他们需要支持商业回报的技术所需的知识。

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