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Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development

机译：参与式方法在定性能源情景开发中的好处和挑战

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摘要

Energy scenarios are a tool for exploring possible future developments or states of energy systems. However, traditional energy scenarios mainly concentrate on technological feasibility and economic impacts and lack consideration of social feasibility. Participatory methods, meaning the involvement of external scientists and stakeholders in the scenario development process, can integrate different types of knowledge, perspectives, and values to improve energy scenario development. This paper reports on an approach which is deduced from the strengths and weaknesses of current research applying participatory methods to generate qualitative scenarios. Three different participatory methods - envisioning storylines, futures wheel, and evaluation of narratives - are combined in order to balance the strengths and weaknesses of each of them to create transparent, plausible qualitative scenarios without predisposition. At these three workshops, a total of 25 external and eleven internal participants discussed future developments of the German energy transformation (Energiewende). The paper examines whether this approach overcomes the limitations of current approaches and is ultimately suitable for improving energy scenarios. The findings suggest that a combination of different participatory methods and also a variety of participants help to overcome bias, explore different future pathways in depth, and distinguish between certain and uncertain developments.
机译：能源方案是探索能源系统未来可能发展或状况的工具。但是，传统的能源情景主要集中在技术可行性和经济影响上，而没有考虑社会可行性。参与式方法意味着外部科学家和利益相关者参与情景开发过程，可以整合不同类型的知识，观点和价值观来改善能源情景开发。本文报告了一种方法，该方法是根据当前研究的优点和缺点得出的，该研究采用参与性方法来生成定性情景。组合了三种不同的参与方法-设想故事情节，期货轮和对叙事的评估-以便平衡每种方法的优点和缺点，从而创建透明，合理的定性情境，而不需要任何诱因。在这三个研讨会上，共有25位外部和11位内部参与者讨论了德国能源转型的未来发展（Energiewende）。本文研究了这种方法是否克服了当前方法的局限性，并最终适合于改善能源情景。研究结果表明，不同参与方法的结合以及众多参与者的参与有助于克服偏见，深入探索未来的不同途径，并区分某些和不确定的发展。

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