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首页> 外文期刊>Technology and innovation >ESTIMATING OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS FROM INNOVATION PROGRAMS: THE CASE OF AIR FORCE AND NAVY SBIR/STTR PROGRAMS
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ESTIMATING OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS FROM INNOVATION PROGRAMS: THE CASE OF AIR FORCE AND NAVY SBIR/STTR PROGRAMS

机译:估算创新计划的成果和影响:空军和海军SBIR / STTR计划的案例

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The Air Force and Navy recently commissioned economic impact studies of their Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs, which provide funding to U.S. small businesses to promote technological innovation. The studies focused on Phase II contracts completed during the 2000 to 2013 period. These were the first comprehensive economic impact surveys of any federal agency SBIR/STTR programs. The studies provided conclusive information on the outcomes of well over 90% of the Phase II contracts. IMPLAN software was applied to company survey results to estimate overall impacts on the U.S. economy. Analysis revealed that both programs have had impressive national economic impacts. However, these studies significantly understate their contribution to the national economy because a substantial portion of the total economic outcomes will occur in the future. This paper demonstrates a conservative, statistically based methodology for estimating the future sales that can be expected from already-funded Air Force and Navy SBIR/ STTR projects after the date of the company surveys. Application of this methodology shows that, for projects that have not yet generated product sales, an estimated additional 10% will eventually result in commercial products. For projects with products that have already reached the marketplace, total product sales will eventually be 83% greater than the totals reported at the time of the surveys. With the addition of the missing future sales, the total economic impact from the Air Force and Navy programs will ultimately be 51% greater than was reported. The new analysis estimates that every dollar invested in Air Force and Navy SBIR/STTR Phase II projects will eventually return $22 in economic activity.
机译:空军和海军最近委托小型企业创新研究(SBIR)和小型企业技术转让(STTR)计划进行经济影响研究,这些计划为美国小型企业提供资金以促进技术创新。研究重点是在2000年至2013年期间完成的第二阶段合同。这些是任何联邦机构SBIR / STTR计划的首次全面经济影响调查。这些研究提供了有关超过90%的第二阶段合同成果的结论性信息。 IMPLAN软件已应用于公司调查结果,以估计对美国经济的总体影响。分析表明,这两个计划都对国民经济产生了深远的影响。但是,这些研究大大低估了它们对国民经济的贡献,因为将来总的经济成果中有很大一部分会出现。本文展示了一种保守的,基于统计的方法,用于估计在公司调查之日之后,已经资助的空军和海军SBIR / STTR项目可以预期的未来销售额。这种方法的应用表明,对于尚未产生产品销售的项目,估计额外的10%最终将产生商业产品。对于产品已经投放市场的项目,产品总销售最终将比调查时报告的总销售额高83%。加上缺少的未来销售,空军和海军计划的总体经济影响最终将比报告的结果大51%。新的分析估计,在空军和海军SBIR / STTR第二阶段项目中投入的每一美元最终将带来22美元的经济活动。

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