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World extra-fine cotton outlook

机译:世界超细棉花展望

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World production of all cotton is expected to climb about 9% from 92m bales this season to 101m in 2004-05, while consumption is forecast about unchanged at 96m bales. Consequently stocks of all cotton will rise. In addition, imports by China (Mainland) are expected to .decline because domestic production will respond to the current level of high prices. As a result, the average Cotlook A Index is expected to fall from an estimated 71 cents this season to about 60 cents a pound next season. Therefore, unless the premium for extra-fine cotton over the A Index strengthens substantially, extra-fine cotton prices are likely to decline in 2004-05. The premium for American Pima over the Cotlook A Index averaged about 90% during the first half of this season. Production and ending stocks of extra-fine cotton are forecast to rise faster than production and stocks of all cotton in 2004-05, hence the extra-fine premium is expected to narrow. Assuming that the average quote in Cotton Outlook for American Pima falls to 80% over the A Index, and the A Index falls to an average of 60 cents a pound, the 2004-05 average quote in Cotton Outlook for American Pima would be around US$1.10.
机译:预计全球所有棉花的产量将从本季节的9200万包增长约9%,到2004-05年度达到1.01亿包,而消费量预计保持不变,为9600万包。因此,所有棉花的库存将增加。此外,由于国内生产将对当前的高价水平做出反应,因此中国(大陆)的进口量预计将下降。结果,Cotlook A指数的平均价格预计将从本季度的71美分跌至下个季度的约60美分/磅。因此,除非超细棉花相对于A指数的溢价大幅提高,否则超细棉花价格很可能在2004-05年度下降。在本季度的上半年,美洲皮马比Cotlook A指数的溢价平均约为90%。预计2004-05年度超细棉的产量和期末库存的增长将快于所有棉花的产量和库存,因此,超细溢价有望收窄。假设美国皮马棉的棉花平均价格指数比A指数下跌80%,并且A指数平均下降至每磅60美分,那么2004-05美国棉皮马的棉花平均价格指数将在美国附近。 $ 1.10。

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