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INDIAN ECONOMY AND TRADE TRENDS

机译：印度的经济和贸易趋势

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In a double delight for the economy, industrial output increased at the fastest pace in almost a year and retail inflation eased to a 17-month low, brightening the prospects of an interest rate cut that would strengthen growth. The Index of Industrial Production rose 8.1% in October, data released by the government showed, marking a strong start to the third quarter of FY19 after a dismal second quarter, when the economy expanded by a less-than expected 7.1%. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, cooled to 2.33% in November, improving the chances of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI next reviews monetary policy on February 7. Retail inflation has stayed below the RBI's medium-term target of 4% for the fourth straight month. The central bank kept the key repo rate of 6.5% on hold at its policy review meeting on December 5. New RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das indicated that growth would be a consideration. "Maintenance of the growth trajectory of the Indian economy is also important." Das said at his first media interaction. "Benign inflation, along with softening economic activity as seen by lead indicators, may provide space to MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) to change its stance in February and follow it up with a rate cut," said Kotak Mahindra Bank economist Upasna Bhardwaj. B Prasanna, head. Global Markets Group, ICICI Bank, expects retail inflation to remain below 4% until the first quarter of FY20. "We also expect a change in monetary policy stance to 'neutral' from 'calibrated tightening' in the February policy and expectations of a rate cut will now start building," he said.
机译：令经济双喜的是，工业产值以近一年来最快的速度增长，零售通货膨胀率降至17个月以来的最低水平，放宽了降息以提振增长的前景。政府发布的数据显示，10月份工业生产指数增长8.1％，标志着FY19第三季度的强劲开局，此前第二季度表现不佳，当时经济增长低于预期，为7.1％。以消费者物价指数衡量的通货膨胀率在11月降到2.33％，这增加了印度储备银行降息的机会。印度储备银行下一步将在2月7日审查货币政策。零售通胀已连续第四个月保持低于印度储备银行的中期目标4％。央行在12月5日的政策审查会议上将关键回购利率维持在6.5％不变。新的印度央行行长Shaktikanta Das表示，将考虑增长。 “保持印度经济增长轨迹也很重要。”达斯在首次媒体互动中说。 Kotak Mahindra银行经济学家Upasna Bhardwaj表示：“良性通货膨胀以及主要指标所见的经济活动疲软，可能为货币政策委员会（MPC）在2月份改变立场并采取降息措施提供空间。” 。 B Prasanna，头。 ICICI银行全球市场集团（Global Markets Group）预计，到20财年第一季度之前，零售通胀将保持在4％以下。他说：“我们还预计货币政策立场将从2月份的'政策调整紧缩'转变为'中性'，并且降息的预期现在将开始建立。”

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    《Textile Trends》 |2019年第10期|27-28|共2页
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