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首页> 外文期刊>Tellus. A >A cycled sensitivity observing system experiment on simulated Doppler wind lidar data during the 1999 Christmas storm 'Martin'
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A cycled sensitivity observing system experiment on simulated Doppler wind lidar data during the 1999 Christmas storm 'Martin'

机译：1999年圣诞节风暴“马丁”期间对模拟多普勒风激光雷达数据进行的循环敏感性观测系统实验

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In a companion paper in this issue Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE) has been introduced as a new method to assess the potential added value of future observing systems for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). There, SOSE was introduced as a single cycle experiment, meaning that additional synthetic observations, to extend the existing global observing system (GOS), are applied in only one assimilation cycle. In this study SOSE has been extended to run over three subsequent days to enable impact assessment of additional prospective observations over a prolonged period prior to an event. This is achieved by a cycled implementation of the SOSE method where analysis adaptations from previous cycles evolve progressively in subsequent cycles. This implementation of a cycled SOSE results in a sequence of pseudo-true atmospheric states that are subsequently used for the simulation of prospective extensions of the existing GOS. A cycled SOSE has two attractive properties as compared to the single-cycle implementation (ⅰ) the resulting pseudo-true atmospheric state at the end of the cycling period, that is, at forecast initial time, provides a better forecast and (ⅱ) the cycling implementation makes the SOSE method more suitable for absolute impact assessment of continuously operated observing systems such as from polar satellite platforms. The NWP case investigated concerns the 1999 Christmas storm 'Martin' that caused much havoc in Western Europe. We show that additional observations from a spaceborne Doppler wind lidar over a 3-d period would have improved the 2-d forecast of 'Martin' substantially. This is substantiated by a 50-member ensemble forecast run.
机译：在本期的另一篇论文中，引入了敏感性观测系统实验（SOSE）作为评估未来数字天气预报（NWP）观测系统的潜在附加值的新方法。在那里，将SOSE作为一个单周期实验进行了介绍，这意味着仅在一个同化周期中即可应用附加的综合观测来扩展现有的全球观测系统（GOS）。在这项研究中，SOSE已扩展为在随后的三天内运行，以便能够在事件发生前的较长时间内评估其他前瞻性观察的影响。这是通过SOSE方法的循环实现而实现的，其中来自先前循环的分析适应性在后续循环中逐渐发展。循环SOSE的这种实现方式会产生一系列伪真实的大气状态，这些状态随后将用于模拟现有GOS的预期扩展。与单周期实施相比，有周期的SOSE具有两个吸引人的特性（ⅰ）在周期结束时（即在预测的初始时间）生成的伪真实大气状态提供了更好的预测，并且（ⅱ）循环执行使SOSE方法更适合于连续运行的观测系统（例如极地卫星平台）的绝对影响评估。调查的NWP案件涉及1999年圣诞节风暴“马丁”，该风暴在西欧造成了严重破坏。我们表明，从太空多普勒测风激光雷达在3天的时间范围内进行的其他观测将大大改善“马丁”的2天预测。这是由50名成员进行的综合预报所证实的。

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