Response in extremes of daily precipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of anthropogenic global climate change scenarios

JAN ERIK HAUGEN; TROND IVERSEN

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Response in extremes of daily precipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of anthropogenic global climate change scenarios

机译：缩小的人为全球气候变化情景的多模式合奏对极端降水和风的响应

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Time-slices of eight global climate model (GCM) response simulations of the IPCC IS92a, CMIP2, SRES A2, B2 and A1B greenhouse gas scenarios have been downscaled using the HIRHAM atmospheric regional climate model (RCM). The area covers Central and Norther

机译：使用HIRHAM大气区域气候模型（RCM）缩减了IPCC IS92a，CMIP2，SRES A2，B2和A1B温室气体情景的八个全球气候模型（GCM）响应模拟的时间片。该地区包括中部和北部

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《Tellus. A》 |2008年第3期|p.411-426|共16页
作者
JAN ERIK HAUGEN; TROND IVERSEN;
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The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway;

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正文语种 eng
中图分类天文学、地球科学;
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机译：100年的全球和区域预计的变化，每日和多天降水极值估计来自气候模拟的三个大型集合
2. Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling [J] . Nayak Sridhara, Dairaku Koji, Takayabu Izuru, Climate dynamics . 2018,第11a12期

机译：极端降水与日本各地的气温有关：多模式整体缩减后的当前评估和预测变化
3. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe. [J] . Vliet M. T. H. van, Blenkinsop S., Burton A., Climatic Change . 2012,第2期

机译：西欧Dommel集水区的按比例缩小的空间气候变化情景的多模型合奏。
4. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Precipitation Process at an Ungaged Location in the Context of Climate Change [C] . Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, Myeong-Ho Yeo . 2015

机译：气候变化背景下干旱地区日常降水过程的统计缩减
5. Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Extremes over the Columbia River Basin Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Scenarios. [D] . Dars, Ghulam Hussain. 2013

机译：根据缩减的CMIP5气候情景，气候变化对哥伦比亚河流域极端降水的影响。
6. Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041–2070 [O] . Carina J. Gronlund, Lorraine Cameron, Claire Shea, 2019

机译：在2041-2070年的密歇根州气候变化情景下评估因极端高温和极端降水导致的某些疾病负担的严重性和不确定性
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Response in extremes of daily precipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of anthropogenic global climate change scenarios

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