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首页> 外文期刊>Tellus. A >A successful resimulation of the 7-8 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions
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A successful resimulation of the 7-8 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions

机译：通过敏感区域的初始潜在涡度修正成功模拟了2005年1月7日至8日的冬季风暴

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摘要

In this study, we present an example of the benefit that can be achieved from carefully designed manual modification of a numerical weather prediction analysis. The case to be investigated is the severe winter storm of 7-8 January 2005, affecting the North Sea and southern Scandinavia. Modifications of potential vorticity (PV) fields according to features in water vapour (WV) images are combined with information from singular vectors (SV) in an attempt to improve the initial state over data sparse regions west of the British Isles. The apparent mismatch between features in the WV image and the upper level PV anomalies in the numerical analysis is corrected, mainly at levels indicated as sensitive by the fastest growing SVs, in order to maximize the impact on the simulation. Model reruns, based on the inverted corrected PV fields, were then performed. The manual correction of PV fields led to a substantial improvement of the simulations of the storm. The PV modifications were carried out by a digital analysis system, implemented at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. This system allows the PV modifications to be done interactively within an operational time limit.
机译：在这项研究中，我们提供了一个可以通过精心设计的人工修改数值天气预报分析而获得的收益的示例。要调查的案件是2005年1月7日至8日的严重冬季风暴，影响了北海和斯堪的那维亚南部。根据水蒸气（WV）图像中的特征对潜在涡度（PV）场进行的修改与奇异矢量（SV）的信息相结合，以试图改善不列颠群岛以西数据稀疏区域的初始状态。修正了WV图像中的特征与数值分析中较高级别的PV异常之间的明显不匹配，主要是在增长最快的SV指示为敏感的级别上进行校正，以最大程度地提高对模拟的影响。然后，根据反向校正后的PV字段进行模型重新运行。手动校正PV场导致风暴模拟的显着改善。通过在挪威气象研究所实施的数字分析系统对PV进行修改。该系统允许在操作期限内以交互方式完成PV修改。

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