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Global MegaCrisis: Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives

机译：全球MegaCrisis：四种方案，两种观点

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Killer pandemics, financial meltdowns, runaway global warming, environmental decay, nuclear war, cyberdisasters: These catastrophes are becoming increasingly routine headlines. The Global MegaCrisis cuts across all sectors in an era of multiple transformations. The Iraq War demonstrated the limits of US military power, and the 2008 global financial crisis highlighted the limits of deregulated markets. The MegaCrisis, simply defined, is a global environmental and economic collapse or near collapse, along with attendant problems of rising prices, mass protests, widespread psychic stress, and lawlessness. Despite the enormity of the challenges, there is reason for hope. Advanced IT, along with the rise of green technologies and other new industries, will help spur an economic upcycle starting about 2015, and it is likely that the Global MegaCrisis will be largely resolved by 2020.
机译：致命的流行病，金融危机，全球变暖失控，环境恶化，核战争，网络灾难：这些灾难正日益成为头条新闻。在多重转型的时代，全球MegaCrisis跨越了所有领域。伊拉克战争证明了美国军事力量的局限性，而2008年的全球金融危机则突显了市场放松管制的局限性。简而言之，MegaCrisis是全球环境和经济崩溃或接近崩溃，以及随之而来的价格上涨，群众抗议，广泛的心理压力和无法无天的问题。尽管挑战艰巨，但仍有希望的理由。先进的IT技术以及绿色技术和其他新兴产业的兴起，将有助于推动从2015年左右开始的经济升级，全球MegaCrisis很有可能在2020年之前得到解决。

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  • 来源
    《The Futurist》 |2011年第3期|p.26-33|共8页
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    William E Halal Michael Marien;

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    About the AuthorsWilliam E. Halal is professor emeritus at George Washington University and president of TechCast LLC (www.TechCast.org). Portions of this article are adapted from his forthcoming book, Through the MegaCrisis: The Technology Revolution to a World of Knowledge, Intelligence, and Global Consciousness.Michael Marien is the founder and former editor of Future Survey, published by WFS for 30 years, and is now the director of GlobalForesightBooks. org.Despite their differences, Halal and Marien share the common bond of having studied for advanced degrees at the University of California, Berkeley.The authors gratefully acknowledge contributions to this analysis by Jerome C. Glenn, director of the Millennium Project, and Mike MacCracken, chief scientist at the Climate Institute. Readers are invited to take the MegaCrisis Survey at www.Tech- Cast.org. E-mail comments to halal@gwu .edu and mmarien@twcny.rr.com.;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
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