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Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data

机译:人口变化是否会影响风险溢价?来自国际数据的证据

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摘要

We examine the link between equity risk premiums and demographic changes using a long sample for the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, and France and a shorter sample for 15 countries. We find demographic variables significantly predict excess returns internationally. However, the demographic predictability previously found in the United States for the average population age does not extend to other countries. Pooling international data, we find, on average, faster growth in the fraction of retired persons significantly decreases risk premiums. This demographic predictability of premiums is strongest in countries with well-developed social security systems and lesser-developed financial markets.
机译:我们使用美国,日本,英国,德国和法国的较长样本,而针对15个国家的较短样本,检验了股票风险溢价与人口变化之间的联系。我们发现,人口统计学变量会大大预测国际上的超额收益。但是,以前在美国发现的平均人口年龄的人口可预测性并未扩展到其他国家。综合国际数据,我们发现平均而言,退休人员比例的更快增长显着降低了风险溢价。在具有完善的社会保障体系和欠发达的金融市场的国家中,保费的人口统计可预测性最强。

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