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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of Navigation >An Ordinal Model of Risk Based on Mariner's Judgement
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An Ordinal Model of Risk Based on Mariner's Judgement

机译：基于水手判断的序数风险模型

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This paper describes a statistical method for learning and estimating the risk posed by other craft in the vicinity of a vessel and an overview of its possible spatial application, simulating how professional mariners perceive and assess such risk and using navigational data obtained from a standard integrated bridge. We propose a non-linear model for risk estimation which attempts to capture mariners' judgement. Questionnaire data has been collected that captures and quantifies mariners' judgements of risk for craft in the vicinity, where each craft is described by measurements that can be obtained easily from the data already present in the ship's navigational equipment. The dataset has then been used for analysis, training and validating Ordered Probit models in order to obtain a computationally efficient data driven model for estimating the risk probability vector posed by other craft. Finally, we discuss how this risk model can be incorporated into decision making and path finding algorithms.
机译：本文介绍了一种统计方法，用于学习和估计船只附近其他船只造成的风险，并概述其可能的空间应用，模拟专业水手如何感知和评估这种风险，并使用从标准综合桥梁获得的导航数据。我们提出了一种用于风险估计的非线性模型，该模型试图捕获水手的判断。已经收集了调查表数据，以捕获并量化水手对附近船只的风险判断，在这里，可以通过从船舶导航设备中已经存在的数据轻松获得的测量值来描述每艘船只。然后，该数据集已用于分析，训练和验证Ordered Probit模型，以便获得计算效率高的数据驱动模型，以估算其他工艺所带来的风险概率向量。最后，我们讨论了如何将此风险模型整合到决策和路径查找算法中。

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