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Development of Probability Based Rule Curves for a Reservoir

机译:基于概率的水库规则曲线的开发

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The probability based rule curves were developed for Mun Bon and Lam Chae reservoirs, Nakhon Ratchasima province, using 50 synthetic generated monthly inflow sequences of 48 years each. There were 4 levels of risk including 0.05,0.10,0.20 and 0.30 for each of the upper and the lower rule curves. Mun Bon reservoir used the actual water use for developing the probability based rule curves. Since Lam Chae reservoir was the newly constructed reservoir, only some part of the project was irrigated. Three water use scenarios were used for developing the probability based rule curves.Those were 100%, 75% and 50% of upland crop area. The probability based rule curves of Mun Bon and Lam Chae reservoirs were used in reservoir operation simulation using the proposed reservoir operating rules and the 48 years of monthly historical data, 1952-1999. The standard operating policy was also used in Mun Bon and Lam Chae reservoir operation simulation using the same set of data in order to see the effectiveness of the developed probability based rule curves. The simulation result showed that the failure indices in terms of the number of months, sum and sum squared of water shortage of the probability based rule curves were smaller than those of the standard operating policy.
机译:为呵叻府的Mun Bon和Lam Chae水库开发了基于概率的规则曲线,使用了50条合成的每月流入序列,每组48年,得出了每月流入量。上下规则曲线分别有4个风险级别,分别为0.05、0.10、0.20和0.30。门邦水库使用实际用水量来绘制基于概率的规则曲线。由于林彩水库是新建的水库,因此仅灌溉了部分项目。三种用水情景用于建立基于概率的规则曲线,分别是旱地作物面积的100%,75%和50%。根据拟议的水库运行规则和1952-1999年48个月的历史数据,将基于概率的Mun Bon和Lam Chae水库规则曲线用于水库运行模拟。使用相同的数据集,在Mun Bon和Lam Chae水库运行模拟中也使用了标准的操作策略,以便查看所建立的基于概率的规则曲线的有效性。仿真结果表明,基于概率的规则曲线的失效指数(以月数,总和和缺水总和表示)均小于标准运行策略。

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