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首页> 外文期刊>The RUSI journal >Climate Change And Regional Security:assessing The Scientific Uncertainties
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Climate Change And Regional Security:assessing The Scientific Uncertainties

机译：气候变化与区域安全：评估科学不确定性

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摘要

There is now scientific consensus that the mean surface temperature of the Earth has warmed in recent decades, and that the warming amounts to around 0.8℃ since the beginning of the twentieth century. From this, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies estimate that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable instrumental measurements become available. Attribution studies show that there is high probability (at least 90 per cent) that this warming is largely the result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) in the troposphere and that the amount and rate of warming are outside of the range of natural variation and unprecedented for the Holocene (the last 11,000 years). Continued warming is expected to have important consequences for a range of Earth systems (including the atmosphere, ice sheets, oceans, hydrological systems and the biosphere). There are compelling reasons to expect increases in the magnitude and frequency of some natural hazards such as floods, droughts and landslides, and increases in the intensity of tropical cyclones.5 There are also concerns about the stability of several of the large ice sheets on Earth as these have the ability to impact upon global sea levels and regulate ocean currents.
机译：现在，已经有科学的共识认为，近几十年来地球的平均表面温度已经变暖，并且自20世纪初以来，变暖的温度约为0.8℃。据此，戈达德空间研究所估计2005年是自可靠的仪器测量可用以来最热的一年。归因研究表明，极有可能（至少90％）这种变暖主要是对流层人为排放的温室气体（主要是二氧化碳）造成的，并且变暖的数量和速率超出了全新世（过去11,000年）的自然变化和前所未有的变化。预计持续变暖将对一系列地球系统（包括大气层，冰原，海洋，水文系统和生物圈）产生重要影响。有令人信服的理由可以预期某些自然灾害（例如洪水，干旱和山体滑坡）的数量和频率会增加，热带气旋的强度也会增加。5人们还担心地球上一些大型冰原的稳定性因为它们具有影响全球海平面和调节洋流的能力。

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