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The Real Strategic Environment A Call for Long-Term Thinking on UK Defence Investment

机译：真实的战略环境呼吁对英国国防投资进行长期思考

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摘要

It is a truism that the basis for long-term defence planning is a potentially unsound assessment of the nature of future security, the threats to it and what will be required in the way of equipment and trained personnel to combat those threats. There can be no certainty in this respect. History has demonstrated that if decisions are correct, it is probably down to a good dose of luck supported by what can at best be described as good judgement.rnIt is also a truism that, given the cost of the future defence programme, those charged with providing the substantial investment necessary to support it require a convincing argument that such investment is necessary. Treasury officials and the political leaders for whom they work need convincing arguments that the levels of investment required are fully justified relative to the other demands on the Exchequer. These two truisms present a fundamental dilemma. The Government needs to be reasonably confident that its investment will be sound and yet it has no way of knowing at the point of decision whether it is or not.
机译：不言而喻，长期防御计划的基础是对未来安全性，对安全性的威胁以及设备和训练有素的人员应对这些威胁的方式可能需要的不可靠评估。在这方面无法确定。历史证明，如果决定是正确的，那么运气最好可以归功于充其量的充沛判断力。鉴于未来国防计划的成本，那些被控告的人也是不言而喻的。提供支持它所必需的大量投资需要令人信服的论点，即这种投资是必要的。财政官员和他们工作的政治领导人需要令人信服的论点，即相对于财政部的其他要求，所需的投资水平是完全合理的。这两个事实构成了根本的困境。政府必须有合理的信心，相信其投资将是稳健的，但在决定时它尚无法确定是否投资。

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  • 来源
    《The RUSI journal》 |2007年第5期|14-17|共4页
  • 作者

    Steven Haines;

  • 作者单位

    Law of Military Operations at Royal Holloway, University of London;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 军事;
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