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Future Warfare Or, the Triumph of History

机译：未来战争或历史的胜利

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摘要

The ever quotable Yogi is half right. But it is the half that is wrong that bears my argument, while his ambiguous truth is a target that I aspire to damage in this essay. To write a short piece on future warfare, let alone a large book, as I was persuaded to attempt, are tasks beset with an awesome problem: there is no evidence. None, as in zero. The future has not happened. No fancy research methodology, no dazzling skill in electronic presentation can change that condition of ignorance. So we have to rely on past experience, do we not? Well, yes and no. I will argue that our future will resemble our past, at least in the respects most important for security. But is history a storehouse of wisdom for us to raid and use selectively for our convenience? And use for what - education, advice? More than a few people, especially in historically-challenged, technology-minded defence communities, are unimpressed. They are basically in the column of deep sceptics with Henry Ford, when he offered what amounted to an epitaph, with his declaration that 'history is bunk'. Rather more troubling is Sir Michael Howard's reported observation that 'history is merely what historians write'. Meanwhile, post-modernists tell us that the past, as contrasted with the history of historians, is irrecoverable. Both views perhaps have merit, but I choose to discount them.
机译：引用过的瑜伽士是正确的一半。但是，有一半是错误的，这是我的论据，而他模棱两可的真理是我希望在本文中提出的目标。要写一篇关于未来战争的简短文章，更不用说我试图说的一本大书了，这些任务困扰着一个可怕的问题：没有证据。无，如零。未来没有发生。没有花哨的研究方法，没有电子演示中令人眼花skill乱的技能可以改变这种无知的状况。因此，我们必须依靠过去的经验，不是吗？好，是的，不是。我将争辩说，至少在安全最重要的方面，我们的未来将与过去相似。但是，历史是否是我们为突袭和有选择地使用以方便我们的智慧的仓库？并用于什么用途-教育，建议？尤其是在具有历史挑战性，技术专长的防御社区中，有很多人不为所动。他们基本上在亨利·福特（Henry Ford）提出的墓志铭中宣称“历史就是铺天盖地”，因此受到了深深的怀疑。更令人不安的是迈克尔·霍华德爵士（Michael Howard）的报道，即“历史仅仅是历史学家的著作”。同时，后现代主义者告诉我们，与历史学家的历史形成鲜明对比的过去是无法挽回的。两种观点也许都有优点，但我选择不予考虑。

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  • 来源
    《The RUSI journal》 |2005年第5期|p.16-19|共4页
  • 作者

    Colin Gray;

  • 作者单位

    International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 军事;
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