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Revisiting Established Doctrine in an Age of Risk

机译：在风险时代重新审视既定学说

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Deterrence was the cornerstone of Western military doctrine from 1949-1989. It was, in the words of Lawrence Freedman, 'central to the strategic discourse'. The entire military structure of the West, and eventually the East, was a oriented towards deterring an actual attack. The theory being if one could deter war, it was better than fighting one. Thus both sides accumulated vast numbers of nuclear warheads and established military alliances that were designed to show the opponent that military action would be too costly an option. The Cold War world was one of closed borders, surrounded by walls and guard towers, patrolled by German Shepards and fortified by tanks. For all sakes and purposes it was literally a 'concrete' system - very little changed very quickly. The Cold War was a methodical game of chess, played out over an extended period according to established rules. With the fall of the Berlin Wall the chessboard of the Cold War was essentially kicked up into the air. While many hoped that the passing of the Soviet Union would herald a new world order, the resulting reality would be more akin to new world disorder. Ethnic cleansing in Africa and Europe, rampant drug trafficking in South America and Asia, rogue states in the Middle East and Pacific Rim all made the world much riskier and disordered than the divided and static Cold War system of East, West and Non-Aligned. No longer was the West confronted by monolithic threats such as Soviet tanks and warheads, now there was a variety of security challenges and risks to be managed. In the West this new reality was captured in NATO's 1991 and 1999 strategic concepts.
机译：威慑是1949-1989年西方军事理论的基石。用劳伦斯·弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）的话说，这是“战略话语的中心”。西方乃至东方的整个军事结构都旨在阻止实际的进攻。这种理论认为，如果有人能阻止战争，那总比打一场更好。因此，双方积累了大量的核弹头，并建立了军事同盟，旨在向对手表明，军事行动是一种代价太高的选择。冷战世界是封闭的边界之一，四周是围墙和警卫塔，由德国谢泼德巡逻并由坦克设防。出于所有目的和目的，这实际上是一个“具体”系统-很快就很少更改。冷战是一种有条不紊的国际象棋游戏，根据既定规则长时间进行。随着柏林墙的倒塌，冷战的棋盘基本上被抬高了。许多人希望苏联的逝世预示着新的世界秩序，但由此产生的现实将更类似于新的世界混乱。非洲和欧洲的种族清洗，南美和亚洲的毒品贩运猖,、中东和环太平洋地区的流氓国家，都使世界比东，西和不结盟的分裂而静止的冷战体系更加危险和混乱。西方不再面临诸如苏联坦克和弹头之类的整体威胁，现在有各种各样的安全挑战和需要管理的风险。在西方，北约1991年和1999年的战略构想抓住了这一新现实。

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  • 来源
    《The RUSI journal》 |2005年第5期|p.48-52|共5页
  • 作者

    Michael Williams;

  • 作者单位

    London School of Economics and Political Science;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 军事;
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