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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >High-resolution long-term WRF climate simulations over Volta Basin. Part 1: validation analysis for temperature and precipitation
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High-resolution long-term WRF climate simulations over Volta Basin. Part 1: validation analysis for temperature and precipitation

机译:沃尔塔盆地的高分辨率长期WRF气候模拟。第1部分:温度和降水的验证分析

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A 26-year simulation (1980-2005) was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model over the Volta Basin in West Africa. This was to investigate the ability of a climate version of WRF to reproduce present day temperature and precipitation over the Volta Basin. The ERA-Interim reanalysis and one realization of the ECHAM6 global circulation model (GCM) data were dynamically downscaled using two nested domains within the WRF model. The outer domain had a horizontal resolution of 50 km and covered the whole of West Africa while the inner domain had a horizontal resolution of 10 km. It was observed that biases in the respective forcing data were carried over to the RCM, but also the RCM itself contributed to the mean bias of the model. Also, the biases in the 50-km domain were transferred unchanged, especially in the case of temperature, to the 10-km domain, but, for precipitation, the higher-resolution simulations increased the mean bias in some cases. While in general, WRF underestimated temperature in both the outer (mean biases of -1.6 and -2.3 K for ERA-Interim and ECHAM6, respectively) and the inner (mean biases of -0.9 K for the reanalysis and -1.8 K for the GCM) domains, WRF slightly underestimated precipitation in the coarser domain but overestimated precipitation in the finer domain over the Volta Basin. The performance of the GCM, in general, is good, particularly for temperature with mean bias of -0.7 K over the outer domain. However, for precipitation, the added value of the RCM cannot be overlooked, especially over the whole West African region on the annual time scale (mean biases of -3% for WRF and -8% for ECHAM6). Over the whole Volta Basin and the Soudano-Sahel for the month of April and spring (MAM) rainfall, respectively, mean bias close to 0% was simulated. Biases in the interannual variability in both temperature and precipitation over the basin were smaller in the WRF than the ECHAM6. High spatial pattern correlations between 0.7 and 0.8 were achieved for the autumn precipitation and low spatial correlation in the range of 0.0 and 0.2 for the winter season precipitation over the whole basin and all the three belts over the basin.
机译:使用西非沃尔塔盆地的天气研究与预报(WRF)模型进行了为期26年的模拟(1980-2005年)。这是为了研究WRF气候版本在Volta盆地上再现当前温度和降水的能力。使用WRF模型中的两个嵌套域对ERA-Interim重新分析和ECHAM6全球循环模型(GCM)数据的一种实现进行了动态缩减。外域的水平分辨率为50 km,覆盖整个西非,而内域的水平分辨率为10 km。可以看到,各个强迫数据中的偏差都转移到了RCM中,但是RCM本身也对模型的平均偏差产生了影响。同样,在50 km范围内的偏差没有改变,尤其是在温度的情况下,转移到10 km范围,但是对于降水,更高分辨率的模拟在某些情况下增加了平均偏差。通常,WRF低估了外部温度(ERA-Interim和ECHAM6的平均偏差分别为-1.6和-2.3 K)和内部温度(重新分析的平均偏差为-0.9 K,GCM的平均偏差为-1.8 K) )区域,WRF略微低估了Volta盆地上较粗区域的降水,但高估了较细区域的降水。通常,GCM的性能良好,特别是对于在外域上平均偏差为-0.7 K的温度。但是,对于降水而言,RCM的附加值不容忽视,特别是在整个西非地区的年度时间尺度上(WRF的平均偏差为-3%,ECHAM6的平均偏差为-8%)。在整个4月份的伏尔塔河流域和Soudano-Sahel以及春季(MAM)降雨中,模拟的平均偏差接近0%。在WRF中,盆地中温度和降水年际变化的偏差小于ECHAM6。在整个流域和整个流域的所有三个带中,秋季降水的空间格局相关性高,在0.7和0.8之间;冬季降水的空间格局相关性在0.0和0.2之间,而空间相关性较低。

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