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Dynamical downscaling of regional climate over eastern China using RSM with multiple physics scheme ensembles

机译:基于RSM和多种物理方案的中国东部区域气候动态降尺度

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摘要

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.
机译:物理过程的参数化是正确模拟中国东部地区气候的关键要素之一。必须对物理参数化方案对区域气候模拟的影响进行详细分析,以提供更可靠的区域气候变化信息。在本文中,我们使用具有不同物理方案的区域光谱模型(RSM)评估了25年(1983-2007年)夏季季风气候特征的降水和地表气温。还评估了使用可靠性集成平均法(REA)的集成结果。结果表明,RSM模型具有再现中国东部地区地面气温和降水的空间格局,变化和时间趋势的能力。而且它倾向于预测长江流域和华南地区更好的气候特征。还研究了不同的物理方案对RSM仿真的影响。通常,由于CLD3云水预测方案高估了低水平水分,因此往往会产生较大的降水。从KF2累积方案得出的系统偏差大于从RAS方案得出的系统偏差。尺度选择偏差校正(SSBC)方法改善了对地表气温和降水的时空特征的模拟,并提高了环流模拟能力。 REA集合结果显示在模拟温度和降水分布方面有显着改善,它们具有更高的相关系数和更低的均方根误差。所选实验的REA结果优于非所选实验的REA结果,表明有必要选择更好的合奏样本进行合奏。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第4期|1263-1277|共15页
  • 作者单位

    Jiangsu Meteorol Observ, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, 163 Xianlin Rd, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, 163 Xianlin Rd, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Jiangsu Meteorol Observ, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Jiangsu Meteorol Observ, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Univ Colorado, Lab Atmospher & Space Phys, Boulder, CO 80303 USA;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, 163 Xianlin Rd, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Zhejiang Meteorol Observ, Hangzhou 310017, Zhejiang, Peoples R China;

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