• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation
【24h】

Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

机译：印度夏季季风季节内振荡的NCEP TIGGE短期预报评估

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This study focuses on the short-range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), which plays an important role in the socio-economic growth of the country, is highly variable and is mostly governed by the MISOs. In addition to this, deterministic forecasts of ISMR are not very reliable. Hence, a probabilistic approach at daily scale is required. Keeping this in mind, the present analysis is done by using daily forecast data for up to 7-day lead time and compared with observations. The analysis shows that the ensemble forecast well captures the variability as compared to observations even up to 7 days. The spatial characteristics and the northward propagation of MISO are observed thoroughly in the EPS. The evolution of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters such as specific humidity, moist static energy, moisture divergence, and vorticity is also captured well but show deviation from the observation from 96 h lead time onwards. The tropospheric temperature forecast captures the observed gradient but with certain bias in magnitude whereas the wind shear is simulated quite well both in pattern and magnitude. These analyses bring out the biases in TIGGE EPS forecast and also point out the possible moist processes which needs to be improved.
机译：这项研究着眼于使用国家环境预测中心（NCEP）集合预报系统（EPS）数据的季风季节内振荡（MISO）的短期预测，该数据来自观测系统研究与可预测性实验（THORPEX）互动式全球大集合（TIGGE） ）存档。印度夏季风降雨（ISMR）在该国的社会经济增长中发挥着重要作用，其变化很大，并且主要由MISO来管理。除此之外，ISMR的确定性预测也不是很可靠。因此，需要一种每日规模的概率方法。牢记这一点，本分析是通过使用长达7天的交货时间的每日预测数据并与观察值进行比较来完成的。分析表明，与长达7天的观测值相比，集合预报能很好地捕获变化。在EPS中，观测到了MISO的空间特征和向北传播。还可以很好地捕获动力学和热力学参数（例如比湿，湿静态能量，水分散度和涡度）的演变，但从96小时的交货时间开始，与观测值存在偏差。对流层温度预报捕获了观测到的梯度，但在幅度上存在一定偏差，而风切变在模式和幅度上都得到了很好的模拟。这些分析指出了TIGGE EPS预测的偏差，并指出了可能需要改进的潮湿过程。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第4期|745-782|共38页
  • 作者

    Tirkey Snehlata; Mukhopadhyay P.;

  • 作者单位

    Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India;

    Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号