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Drought in Northeast Brazil-past, present, and future

机译：巴西东北部的干旱-过去，现在和将来

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摘要

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.
机译：这项研究概述了巴西东北部过去，现在和未来的干旱状况。由于其规模大和持久的特点，干旱对人们的影响比任何其他自然灾害都多。它们在该地区经常发生，尽管政府已采取了一些措施来减轻其影响，但仍然有人认为，主要是农村地区的居民尚未适应这些危害。但是，2012年至2015年影响东北地区的干旱强度和影响数十年来未见，已经摧毁了大片农田，影响了该地区的数百个城镇，使牧场主难以觅食和饮水牛。该地区未来的气候预测表明气温将大大升高，降​​雨量减少，再加上连续干旱天的持续时间较长，这表明该地区发生频繁/强烈的干旱和干旱以及干旱化的趋势。所有这些条件导致水库和湖泊的蒸发增加，影响了灌溉和农业以及包括水力发电和工业在内的关键用水，从而影响了居民的福利。干旱监测和季节预报相结合，为评估气候变化和变化的影响，确定脆弱性以及为中长期气候变化以及极端年际气候变化（尤其是干旱）的极端情况提供更好的适应措施提供了有效的手段。

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