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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA
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The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

机译：开发带有外部输入的非线性自回归模型（NARX）以模拟气候-水净度关系：为美国东南部沿海水域重建历史水净度指数

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摘要

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies-regionally, seasonally and interannually-with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Nio events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.
机译：美国东南部的沿海水域包含重要的受保护的栖息地和自然资源，容易受到气候变化和单一天气事件的影响。受大气事件强烈影响的水质清晰度与整个地区的重大环境影响相关。为了长期评估这种关系，本研究使用了基于人工神经网络的时间序列建模技术，该技术被称为带有外源输入的非线性自回归模型（NARX模型），以探讨气候与水净度指数（KDI）之间的关系。 ），并在66年内重建该指数。结果表明，天气尺度的环流模式，天气类型和降水都在较大区域的每个区域不同程度上影响着水的透明度。特别是在研究区域的大部分地区，混浊的水与过渡天气和气旋循环有关。总体而言，NARX模型的性能在区域，季节和年度间也有所不同，因为冬季沿西佛罗里达大陆架的KDI估计值与r> 0.70时的实际KDI相关。该地区极端（高）KDI时期与厄尔尼诺现象明显。从1948年到2013年，极端KDI事件在整个佛罗里达墨西哥湾沿岸的大部分地区也呈上升趋势。

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