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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)
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Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)

机译：半干旱地区八十年来干旱脆弱性和风险的时空分析（滕夫特盆地：摩洛哥）

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摘要

In the last few decades, drought has become a chronic phenomenon in Morocco. It began at the end of the 1970s and continued to the late 2000s. In the present study, hydrometeorological data sets, Standardized Precipitation Index method, and non-parametric tests were used to recognize the frequency and the severity of drought events during the period between 1929 and 2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index showed significant inter-annual fluctuation and evolution of rainfall amounts representing wet cycles (i.e., before 1975) followed by a long period of drought between 1975 and 2004. The inter-annual variability of rainfall is accompanied by shifts of stationarity in the rainfall series. The statistical test of Pettitt, Bayesian method of Lee and Heghinian, Buishand procedure, and Hubert test revealed shifts around the mid 70s. After this period, a deficit of rainfall (with a maximum value of -30 %) was registered. The probabilities of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index values were normal to below normal during the last 40 years. In fact, the increase of drought risk may be resulted from the increase of frequency and severity of meteorological drought. The proposed Standardized Precipitation Index method and non-parametric tests yielded reasonable and satisfactory results for Morocco. Therefore, this approach could be successfully applied to other semi-arid, dry, sub-humid, or semi-humid regions worldwide, where rainfall series are showing high seasonality and year-to-year variability.
机译：在过去的几十年中，干旱已成为摩洛哥的一种长期现象。它始于1970年代末，一直持续到2000年代末。在本研究中，水文气象数据集，标准化降水指数方法和非参数检验被用于识别1929年至2010年期间干旱事件的频率和严重程度。标准化降水指数显示出明显的年际波动和代表湿循环（即1975年之前）的降雨量的演变，随后是1975年至2004年之间的长期干旱。降雨的年际变化伴随着降雨序列的平稳性变化。 Pettitt的统计检验，Lee和Heghinian的贝叶斯方法，Buishand程序以及Hubert检验揭示了70年代中期的变化。在此期间之后，出现降雨不足（最大值为-30％）。在过去的40年中，每月标准降水指数的概率是正常的或低于正常的。实际上，干旱风险的增加可能是由于气象干旱的频率和严重性增加。提议的标准化降水指数方法和非参数测试为摩洛哥提供了合理而令人满意的结果。因此，这种方法可以成功地应用于全球其他半干旱，干旱，半湿润或半湿润地区，这些地区的降雨序列显示出很高的季节性和逐年变化性。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第2期|321-330|共10页
  • 作者

    Fniguire Fatima; Laftouhi Nour-Eddine; Saidi Mohamed Elmehdi; Zamrane Zineb; El Himer Hicham; Khalil Nourddine;

  • 作者单位

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco|Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco|Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, Fac Sci & Tech, Marrakech 40000, Morocco;

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco|Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco|Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;

    Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco|Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;

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