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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India
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Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

机译：探索合适的气候以估计印度喀拉拉邦季风爆发的可预测性

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摘要

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981-2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land-ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.
机译：使用每日温度调查印度喀拉拉邦（MOK）季风爆发的年际变化。平均海平面压力；在850、500和200 hPa的压力水平下风力；外向长波辐射（OLR）；海表温度（SST）和垂直积分水分含量异常，观察了32年（1981-2013）。通过将喀拉拉邦的平均季风发作日期定为6月1日（标准差为8天），将MOK分为早期，延迟或正常。该研究的目的是确定MOK期间的天气概况，并与气候学进行比较，以估计提前期为5、10和15天的发病类型（早期，正常或延迟）的可预测性。研究表明，在MOK早期，孟加拉湾对流的增强对流在MOK延迟期间在阿拉伯海上空转移。 MOK早期在印度洋南部西部观测到一个强烈的高压带，而MOK延迟则向东部转移。在MOK早期，赤道西部的对流层温度（TT）较高，而印度次大陆上的对流层温度较低，这加剧了导致MOK早期的陆地-海洋热反差。观察到阿拉伯海的海表温度（SST）在延迟期间要比早期的MOK温暖。在MOK早期，西南风850 hPa的源向西赤道带转移，而在该水平的MOK延迟期间发现了COL区。研究进一步揭示，在200hPa压力水平下的风速异常与对流层温度异常呈反比。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第2期|59-76|共18页
  • 作者

    Pal J.; Chaudhuri S.; Mukherjee S.; Chowdhury A. Roy;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Calcutta, Dept Atmospher Sci, 51-2 Hazra Rd, Kolkata 700019, India;

    Univ Calcutta, Dept Atmospher Sci, 51-2 Hazra Rd, Kolkata 700019, India;

    Univ Calcutta, Dept Atmospher Sci, 51-2 Hazra Rd, Kolkata 700019, India;

    Univ Calcutta, Dept Atmospher Sci, 51-2 Hazra Rd, Kolkata 700019, India;

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