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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran
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Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

机译：区域尺度上气候变化的发现和归因：以伊朗西部卡尔赫河流域为例

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This research aims at providing a statistical framework for detection and attribution of climate variability and change at regional scale when at least 30 years of observation data are available. While extensive research has been done on detecting significant observed trends in hydroclimate variables and attribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in large continents, less attention has been paid for regional scale analysis. The latter is mainly important for adaptation to climate change in different sectors including but not limited to energy, agriculture, and water resources planning and management, and it is still an open discussion in many countries including the West Asian ones. In the absence of regional climate models, an informative framework is suggested providing useful insights for policymakers. It benefits from general flexibility, not being computationally expensive, and applying several trend tests to analyze temporal variations in temperature and precipitation (gradual and step changes). The framework is implemented for a very important river basin in the west of Iran. In general, some increasing and decreasing trends of the interannual precipitation and temperature have been detected. For precipitation annual time series, a reducing step was seen around 1996 compared with the gradual change in most of the stations, which have not experience a dramatical change. The range of natural forcing is found to be +/- 76 % for precipitation and +/- 1.4 A degrees C for temperature considering a two-dimensional diagram of precipitation and temperature anomalies from 1000-year control run of global climate model (GCM). Findings out of applying the proposed framework may provide useful insights into how to approach structural and non-structural climate change adaptation strategies from central governments.
机译：这项研究旨在提供一个统计框架，用于在至少有30年的观测数据时，在区域范围内检测和确定气候变异性和变化。尽管已经进行了广泛的研究以发现大气候中观测到的明显的气候变化趋势以及归因于大洲的人为温室气体排放，但对区域规模分析的关注较少。后者对于适应包括但不限于能源，农业和水资源规划与管理在内的不同部门的气候变化至关重要，它在包括西亚国家在内的许多国家中仍是公开讨论。在没有区域气候模型的情况下，建议建立一个信息框架，为决策者提供有用的见解。它得益于一般的灵活性，而不是计算昂贵，并且可以应用多个趋势测试来分析温度和降水的时间变化（逐渐变化和阶跃变化）。该框架是针对伊朗西部一个非常重要的流域实施的。通常，已经检测到年际降水和温度的一些上升和下降趋势。对于降水年度时间序列，与大多数未经历剧烈变化的台站逐渐变化相比，1996年前后观测到了减少的步骤。考虑到全球气候模型（GCM）1000年控制运行的降水和温度异常的二维图，发现降水的自然强迫范围为+/- 76％，温度的+/- 1.4 A摄氏度。应用拟议框架的结果可能会为中央政府如何采取结构性和非结构性气候变化适应策略提供有用的见解。

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