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Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

机译：中国西南地区参考蒸散量变化的空间格局及其时空演化

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摘要

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.
机译：由于气候变化与参考蒸散量（ETo）密切相关，因此检测ETo空间分布的变化及其在地方和区域级别的时间演变，有利于全面了解气候变化对水文学和农业的影响。在这项研究中，目的是确定气候变化是否在不同分析时期（即长（20年），中（10年）和短期（5年） ）]，并研究中国西南地区（SWC）年和月尺度的时间演变（即这些变化发生的时间）。首先，我们根据1973-2012年在269个气象点测得的历史气候数据，使用联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）的Penman-Monteith方程估算了ETo值。方差分析（ANOVA）结果表明，过去40年中，年度ETo的空间格局发生了显着变化，特别是在长期分析期间的西部SWC以及中期和短期的西部和东南SWC时间段，分别对应于显着差异的百分比面积分别为21.9、58.0和48.2％。为了研究年度ETo的空间格局的时间演变，我们使用了Duncan的多范围检验，我们发现1988-2002年期间出现了最显着的变化，显着面积大于25.0％。此外，在长期，中期和短期分析期间，空间分布在3月，9月，11月和12月发生了显着变化，尤其是在1988-1997年，1983-1992年，1973-1977年的相应时期，以及1988-2002年。总而言之，自1970年代以来，气候变化导致SWC的ETo发生了重大变化。认识气候变化引起的ETO的空间分布及其时间演变，将有助于制定水资源和农业管理战略。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第4期|979-992|共14页
  • 作者

    Sun Shanlei; Wang Guojie; Huang Jin; Mu Mengyuan; Yan Guixia; Liu Chunwei; Gao Chujie; Li Xing; Yin Yixing; Zhang Fangmin; Zhu Siguang; Hua Wenjian;

  • 作者单位

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Sch Geog & Remote Sensing, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Sch Appl Meteorol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Appl Hydrometeorol Res Inst, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Sch Appl Meteorol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Sch Appl Meteorol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;

    NUIST, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

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