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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia
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Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia

机译：气候变化对南亚耐热玉米的影响和潜在利益

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Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4-1.8 A degrees C in 2030 and 2.1-2.6 A degrees C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3-6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2-12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3-8 % in 2030 and 5-14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.
机译：在不同的环境下，南亚（SA）的数百万小农户种植了玉米。一年中不同季节的农作物都有不同的极端气候条件，包括处于关键生长阶段的高温，预计随着气候变化，温度会增加。这项研究评估了当前和未来的热胁迫对玉米的影响以及SA中耐热品种的益处。到2030年，年平均最高温度可能会上升1.4-1.8 A摄氏度，到2050年将上升2.1-2.6 A摄氏度，整个南澳的月度，季节和空间变化都很大。相对于基准线，南非的热应激区域范围可能在2030年增加多达12％，在2050年增加多达21％。热胁迫的影响和耐热品种的收益随温度升高水平和种植季节而变化。在区域范围内，如果使用当前的品种，气候变化将使雨养玉米产量在2030年平均减少3.3-6.4％，在2050年平均减少5.2-12.2％，到2030年将灌溉产量减少3-8％，到2050年减少5-14％。在未来的气候下生长。在预计的气候条件下，在雨养和灌溉条件下，耐热品种可使相对于当前玉米品种的产量损失（相对于当前的玉米品种）分别减少36％和93％，到2050年分别减少33％和86％。因此，耐热玉米品种有可能使玉米种植者免受热胁迫造成的严重产量损失，并帮助他们适应气候变化的影响。

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