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Historical statistics and future changes in long-duration blocking highs in key regions of Eurasia

机译：欧亚大陆主要地区的历史统计数据和长期变化的未来变化阻止了高点

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摘要

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data and 13 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study focuses on historical statistics and future change in blocking over key regions (Urals, Baikal, and Okhotsk regions) in Eurasia. The statistical characteristic using NNR data shows that short-duration and long-duration blocking highs are 75 and 25% of the total, respectively. It is also shown that frequency of blocking highs presents a decreased trend in Eurasia during 1956-2006, except blocking highs in summer in Baikal region, long-duration blocking highs in summer, and short-duration blocking highs in winter in Okhotsk region. Compared with NNR, the frequency of blocking highs is underestimated in Eurasia by CMIP5 models, except these with long-duration in the Baikal and Okhotsk regions. Most of the CMIP5 models can reproduce the historical trend of blocking highs over Eurasia during 1956-2005. In addition, projections show that the future change of long-duration blocking highs in Eurasia is not always consistent with that in the whole Northern Hemisphere. The results of the multiple models ensemble (MME) suggest that long-duration blocking highs in the Urals will significantly increase by 0.3 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the wintertime. In the summertime, the frequency fluctuates with little change. In Okhotsk, long-duration blocking highs will increase by 0.23 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) in the wintertime (summertime) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, long-duration blocking high frequency will remain the same, and the decreasing trend in the wintertime and the increasing trend (0.32 times/10 years) in the summertime will even accelerate over the trends in the twentieth century.
机译：利用NCEP / NCAR再分析（NNR）数据和耦合模型比较项目（CMIP5）的第5阶段的13个模型，本研究着重于欧亚大陆关键地区（乌拉尔，贝加尔和鄂霍次克地区）的历史统计数据和未来变化。使用NNR数据的统计特性表明，短期和长期阻塞高点分别占总数的75％和25％。研究还表明，在1956-2006年期间，阻塞高点的频率在欧亚大陆呈下降趋势，除了贝加尔湖地区夏季的阻塞高点，夏季夏季的长期阻塞高点和鄂霍次克地区的冬季短期阻塞的高点。与NNR相比，CMIP5模型低估了欧亚大陆的阻塞高点的频率，除了贝加尔湖和鄂霍次克地区的持续时间长。大多数CMIP5模型都可以再现1956-2005年间阻止欧亚大陆高点的历史趋势。此外，预测表明，欧亚大陆长期封锁高点的未来变化并不总是与整个北半球一致。多模型合奏（MME）的结果表明，在冬季，在RCP4.5（RCP8.5）下，乌拉尔的长期阻塞高点将显着增加0.3倍/ 10年（减少0.22倍/ 10年）。 。在夏季，频率波动很小。在鄂霍次克，在RCP4.5下的冬季（夏季），长期阻塞高点将增加0.23倍/ 10年（减少0.22倍/ 10年）。在RCP8.5下，长时间阻塞高频将保持不变，并且在20世纪的趋势中，冬季的下降趋势和夏季的上升趋势（0.32次/ 10年）甚至会加速。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第4期|1195-1207|共13页
  • 作者

    Li Yan; Ye Peilong; Pu Zhaoxia; Feng Juan; Ma Baisheng; Wang Jinyan;

  • 作者单位

    Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China;

    Lanzhou Cent Meteorol Observ, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China;

    Univ Utah, Dept Atmospher Sci, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA;

    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci GCESS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China|Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China;

    Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China;

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