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Bias-corrected regional climate projections of extreme rainfall in south-east Australia

机译：偏差校正的澳大利亚东南部极端降雨区域气候预测

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摘要

This study presents future changes in extreme precipitation as projected within the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project's regional climate ensemble for south-east Australia. Model performance, independence and projected future changes were considered when designing the ensemble. We applied a quantile mapping bias correction to the climate model outputs based on theoretical distribution functions, and the implications of this for the projected precipitation extremes is investigated. Precipitation extremes are quantified using several indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices set of indices. The bias correction was successful in removing most of the magnitude bias in extreme precipitation but does not correct biases in the length of maximum wet and dry spells. The bias correction also had a relatively small effect on the projected future changes. Across a range of metrics, robust increases in the magnitude of precipitation extreme indices are found. While these increases are often in-line with a continuation of the trends present over the last century, they are not found to be statistically significant within the ensemble as a whole. The length of the maximum consecutive wet spell is projected to remain at present-day levels, while the length of the maximum dry spell is projected to increase into the future. The combination of longer dry spells and increases in extreme precipitation magnitude indicate an important change in the character of the precipitation time series. This could have considerable hydrological implications since changes in the sequencing of events can be just as important as changes in event magnitude for hydrological impacts.
机译：这项研究提出了新南威尔士州和澳大利亚首都地区区域气候模型（NARCliM）项目在澳大利亚东南部的区域气候集合中预计的极端降水的未来变化。在设计整体时要考虑模型的性能，独立性和预计的未来变化。我们基于理论分布函数对气候模型输出应用了分位数映射偏差校正，并研究了其对预计的极端降水的影响。使用气候变化检测专家组的几个指标和指标集对极端降水进行量化。偏差校正成功地消除了极端降水中的大部分幅度偏差，但并未校正最大湿法和干法术长度上的偏差。偏差校正对预计的未来变化的影响也相对较小。在一系列指标中，发现极端降水指数的幅度强劲增长。尽管这些增长通常与上个世纪持续出现的趋势相吻合，但在整个整体中并没有统计上的意义。预计最大连续湿拼的时长将保持在当前水平，而最大干湿拼的时长预计将在未来增加。较长的干旱期和极端降水量增加的组合表明降水时间序列的特征发生了重要变化。这可能对水文产生重大影响，因为事件顺序的变化与事件量级变化对水文影响一样重要。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第4期|1085-1098|共14页
  • 作者

    Evans Jason P.; Argueso D.; Olson R.; Di Luca A.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

    Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, SOEST, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;

    Yonsei Univ, Atmospher Sci, Seoul, South Korea;

    Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

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