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The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece

机译：气温和人体温度指数对希腊雅典死亡率的影响

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摘要

This paper investigates whether there is any association between the daily mortality for the wider region of Athens, Greece and the thermal conditions, for the 10-year period 1992-2001. The daily mortality datasets were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Service and the daily meteorological datasets, concerning daily maximum and minimum air temperature, from the Hellinikon/Athens meteorological station, established at the headquarters of the Greek Meteorological Service. Besides, the daily values of the thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were evaluated in order to interpret the grade of physiological stress. The first step was the application of Pearson's X~2 test to the compiled contingency tables, resulting in that the probability of independence is zero (p=0.000); namely, mortality is in close relation to the air temperature and PET/ UTCI. Furthermore, the findings extracted by the generalized linear models showed that, statistically significant relationships (p<0.01) between air temperature, PET, UTCI and mortality exist on the same day. More concretely, on one hand during the cold period (October-March), a 10℃ decrease in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 13%, 15%, 2%, 7% and 6% of the probability having a death, respectively. On the other hand, during the warm period (April-September), a 10℃ increase in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 3%, 1%, 10%, 3% and 5% of the probability having a death, respectively. Taking into consideration the time lag effect of the examined parameters on mortality, it was found that significant effects of 3-day lag during the cold period appears against 1-day lag during the warm period. In spite of the general aspect that cold conditions seem to be favourable factors for daily mortality, the air temperature and PET/UTCI exceedances over specific thresholds depending on the distribution reveal that, very hot conditions are risk factors for the daily mortality.
机译：本文调查了1992年至2001年这10年间，希腊雅典较宽地区的每日死亡率与热条件之间是否存在任何关联。每日死亡率数据集是从希腊统计局获取的，而每日气象数据集则是从希腊气象局总部的赫利尼康/雅典气象站获取的，涉及每日最高和最低气温。此外，评估了每日的生理等效温度（PET）和全球热气候指数（UTCI）的每日值，以解释生理压力的等级。第一步是将Pearson的X〜2检验应用于已编制的列联表中，从而得出独立概率为零（p = 0.000）；也就是说，死亡率与气温和PET / UTCI密切相关。此外，广义线性模型提取的结果表明，同一天气温，PET，UTCI和死亡率之间存在统计学上显着的关系（p <0.01）。更具体地说，一方面，在寒冷时期（10月至3月），每天最高气温，最低气温，温度范围，PET和UTCI降低10℃分别与升高13％，15％，2％，死亡的概率分别为7％和6％。另一方面，在温暖时期（4月至9月），每日最高气温，最低气温，温度范围，PET和UTCI升高10℃分别与升高3％，1％，10％，3有关死亡的概率分别为％和5％。考虑到所检查的参数对死亡率的时间滞后效应，发现在寒冷时期三天滞后的显着影响出现在温暖时期相对于一日滞后的显着影响。尽管从总体上看，寒冷的条件似乎是造成每日死亡的有利因素，但气温和PET / UTCI超出特定阈值（取决于分布）的情况表明，非常热的条件是造成每日死亡的危险因素。

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    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2012年第4期|p.591-599|共9页
  • 作者

    Panagiotis T. Nastos; Andreas Matzarakis;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Department of Geography and Climatology, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Panepistimioupolis, 15784 Athens, Greece;

    Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;

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