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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: The role of ENSO
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Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: The role of ENSO

机译：ECHAM4模拟和再分析中印度尼西亚降雨的季节变化：ENSO的作用

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摘要

A study of the skill of the ECHAM version 4 atmospheric general circulation model and two reanalyses in simulating Indonesian rainfall is presented with comparisons to 30 years of rain gauge data. The reanalyses are those performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction jointly with National Center for Atmospheric Research. This study investigates the skill of the reanalyses and ECHAM4 with regard to three climate regions of Indonesia, the annual and interannual variability of rainfall and its responses to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is conducted at two spectral resolutions, T42 and T106. The skill of rainfall simulations in Indonesia depends on the region, month and season, and the distribution of land and sea. Higher simulation skills are confined to years with ENSO events. With the exception of the northwest region of Indonesia, the rainfall from June (Molucca) and July (south Indonesia) to November is influenced by ENSO, and is more sensitive to El Nino than La Nina events. Observations show that the Moluccan region is more sensitive to ENSO, receives a longer ENSO impact and receives the earliest ENSO impact in June, which continues through to December. It is found that the reanalyses and the climate model simulate seasonal variability better than monthly variability. The seasonal skill is highest in June/July/August, followed by September/October/November, December/January/ February and March/April/May. The correlations usually break down in April (for monthly analysis) or in the boreal spring (for seasonal analysis). This period seems to act as a persistent barrier to Indonesian rainfall predictability and skill. In general, the performance of ECHAM4 is poor, but in ENSO sensitive regions and during ENSO events, it is comparable to the reanalyses.
机译：通过与30年雨量计数据的比较，对ECHAM版本4大气总循环模型的技巧进行了研究，并进行了两次重新分析以模拟印度尼西亚的降雨。重新分析是由欧洲中型天气预报中心，国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心共同进行的。这项研究调查了印度尼西亚三个气候区域的再分析和ECHAM4的技巧，降雨的年际和年际变化及其对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件的响应。该研究以两个光谱分辨率T42和T106进行。印度尼西亚降雨模拟的技巧取决于地区，月份和季节以及陆地和海洋的分布。较高的仿真技能仅限于ENSO事件的使用年限。除印度尼西亚西北地区外，6月（莫卢卡）和7月（印度尼西亚南部）至11月的降雨受ENSO的影响，比拉尼娜事件对厄尔尼诺现象更为敏感。观测结果表明，莫卢坎地区对ENSO的影响更大，受到ENSO的影响更长，并且在6月（最早一直持续到12月）受到ENSO的最早影响。结果发现，重新分析和气候模型模拟的季节性变化优于月度变化。季节性技能在6月/ 7月/ 8月最高，其次是9月/ 10月/ 11月，12月/ 1月/ 2月和3月/ 4月/ 5月。这些相关性通常在4月（用于每月分析）或北方春季（用于季节性分析）中分解。这一时期似乎一直是印尼降雨可预测性和技能的持续障碍。通常，ECHAM4的性能较差，但在ENSO敏感区域和ENSO事件期间，它与重新分析具有可比性。

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