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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Probability change of extreme precipitation observed from 1901 to 2000 in Germany
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Probability change of extreme precipitation observed from 1901 to 2000 in Germany

机译：1901年至2000年德国观测到的极端降水的概率变化

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摘要

A generalized time series decomposition technique is applied to monthly total precipitation data from a German station network of 132 time series covering 1901-2000. The decomposition technique shows that observed time series can be interpreted as a realization of a Gumbel distributed random variable with time-dependent location parameter and time-dependent scale parameter. It provides a full analytical description of the series in terms of the probability density function (PDF) for every time step of the observation period. Consequently, probability assessments of extreme values are possible for any threshold at any time. Most of the year, an increase in the probability of exceeding the 95th percentile and a decrease in the probability of falling under the 5th percentile can be detected at several stations in the southern part of Germany. In the western part, we observe the same phenomenon in the summer months, but these changes go along with smaller magnitudes. However, climate is getting more extreme in that region in winter: Probability for both exceeding the 95th percentile and for falling under the 5th percentile is increasing. In the eastern part of Germany, increases in the probability of occurrence of relatively low precipitation in winter as well as decreases in both probabilities (>95th percentile, <5th percentile) in summer and autumn prevail.
机译：将广义时间序列分解技术应用于来自190个至2000年的132个时间序列的德国气象站网络的月总降水量数据。分解技术表明，观察到的时间序列可以解释为具有时间相关的位置参数和时间相关的比例参数的Gumbel分布随机变量的实现。它提供了有关观察期每个时间步的概率密度函数（PDF）形式的序列的完整分析说明。因此，可以随时对任何阈值进行极值的概率评估。一年中的大部分时间，可以在德国南部的多个站点发现超过95％的概率增加，并且跌破5％的概率降低。在西部，我们在夏季观察到相同的现象，但是这些变化的幅度较小。但是，冬季该地区的气候变得更加极端：超过95％和低于5％的概率都在增加。在德国东部，冬季出现相对较低的降水的概率增加，而夏季和秋季的两种概率（> 95％，<5％）均降低。

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