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Fuzzy logic model of lake water level fluctuations in Lake Van, Turkey

机译：土耳其范湖水位波动的模糊逻辑模型

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摘要

Lake Van is one of the largest terminal lakes in the world. In recent years, significant lake level fluctuations have occurred and can be related to global climatic change. This fluctuation sometimes exhibits abrupt shifts. Floods originating from the lake can cause considerable damage and loss in agriculture and urban areas. Therefore, water level forecasting plays a significant role in planning and design. This study is aimed at predicting future lake levels from past rainfall amounts and water level records. A dynamical change of the lake level is evaluated by the fuzzy approach. The fuzzy inference system has the ability to use fuzzy membership functions that include the uncertainties of the concerned event. This method is applied for Lake Van, in east Turkey. Furthermore, model capabilities are compared with ARMAX model. It is shown that lower absolute errors are obtained with the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy approach than with the ARMAX model.
机译：范湖是世界上最大的终端湖之一。近年来，发生了明显的湖泊水位波动，并且可能与全球气候变化有关。这种波动有时会出现突变。源自湖泊的洪水会在农业和城市地区造成相当大的破坏和损失。因此，水位预测在规划和设计中起着重要作用。这项研究旨在根据过去的降雨量和水位记录预测未来的湖泊水位。通过模糊方法评估了湖泊水位的动态变化。模糊推理系统具有使用模糊隶属函数的能力，该函数包括有关事件的不确定性。此方法适用于土耳其东部的范湖。此外，将模型功能与ARMAX模型进行了比较。结果表明，使用Takagi-Sugeno模糊方法比使用ARMAX模型获得的绝对误差更低。

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