...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and applied climatology >Statistical bias correction of regional climate model simulations for climate change projection in the Jemma sub-basin, upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia
【24h】

Statistical bias correction of regional climate model simulations for climate change projection in the Jemma sub-basin, upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

机译：埃塞俄比亚高蓝尼罗河盆地血轮盆地气候变化预测区域气候模型模拟统计偏差

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
   

获取外文期刊封面封底 >>

       
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This study evaluates bias correction methods and develops future climate scenarios using the output of a better bias correction technique at the Jemma sub-basin. The performance of different bias correction techniques was evaluated using several statistical metrics. The bias correction methods performance under climate condition different from the current climate was also evaluated using the differential split sample testing (DSST) and reveals that the distribution mapping technique is valid under climate condition different from the current climate. All bias correction methods were effective in adjusting mean monthly and annual RCM simulations of rainfall and temperature to the observed rainfall and temperature values. However, distribution mapping method was better in capturing the 90th percentile of observed rainfall and temperature and wet day probability of observed rainfall than other methods. As a result, we use the future (2021-2100) simulation of RCMs which are bias corrected using distribution mapping technique. The output of bias-adjusted RCMs unfolds a decline of rainfall, a persistent increase of temperature and an increase of extremes of rainfall and temperature in the future climate under emission scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5, 8.5 and 2.6 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). Thus, climate adaptation strategies that can provide optimal benefits under different climate scenarios should be developed to reduce the impact of future climate change.
机译：本研究评估偏置校正方法，并使用Jemma子盆地的更好偏置校正技术的输出来开发未来的气候情景。使用几种统计指标评估不同偏压校正技术的性能。还使用差分分离样品测试（DSST）评估了与当前气候不同的气候条件下的偏压校正方法的性能，并揭示了分配映射技术在与当前气候不同的气候条件下有效。所有偏压校正方法都有效地调整平均每月和年度RCM模拟降雨和温度的降雨和温度值。然而，在观察到的降雨量和温度和温度和潮湿的日降雨的温度和潮湿的日降雨概率上比其他方法更好地捕获第90百分位数。因此，我们使用使用分配映射技术进行偏压的RCM的未来（2021-2100）模拟。偏差调整的RCMS的产出展开降雨量下降，温度持续增长，并在代表性浓度途径4.5,8.5和2.6（RCP4.5，RCP8的RCP4.5，RCP8，未来的气候中的降雨量和温度的极端降雨量和温度的增加。 5和rcp2.6）。因此，应制定可在不同气候情景下提供最佳效益的气候适应策略，以减少将来的气候变化的影响。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2020年第4期|1569-1588|共20页
  • 作者

    Worku Gebrekidan; Teferi Ermias; Bantider Amare; Dile Yihun T.;

  • 作者单位

    Addis Ababa Univ Ctr Environm & Dev Studies Addis Ababa Ethiopia|Debretabor Univ Dept Nat Resources Management Debra Tabor Ethiopia;

    Addis Ababa Univ Ctr Environm & Dev Studies Addis Ababa Ethiopia;

    Addis Ababa Univ Ctr Food Secur Studies Addis Ababa Ethiopia|Addis Ababa Univ Water & Land Resources Ctr Addis Ababa Ethiopia;

    Texas A&M Univ Coll Agr & Life Sci College Stn TX USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号