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A novel method to detect drought and flood years in Indian rainfall associated with weak and strong monsoon

机译：一种新的方法来检测与弱季风的印度降雨中的干旱和洪水

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摘要

The proposition of a new algorithm facilitates the predictability of weak/strong monsoons that lead to drought/flood events, respectively, in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The proposed method estimates skewed Gaussian kernel distribution in the extreme values extracted from the rainfall series, and confidence levels of drought and flood years are obtained using bootstrap. Using the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the proposed method detects that extreme droughts (at 99% confidence level) in India are likely to occur in 2024 and 2027 in the early 21st century. Similarly, models project that 2031, 2032, and 2033 will be the most prominent flood years. It is projected that the probability of drought occurrence is likely to increase by 16%. In contrast, it is expected to diminish flood events by 11% in the future under projected global warming. Notably, our analysis reveals that 23.4% of grids covering similar to 30% of the Indian region are likely to experience increased frequency and intensity of droughts during 2020-2029, mainly covering the Northeast, Central, and Southern India. Furthermore, during this period, the Northeast and some parts in the North would experience floods over 29.6% (which covers similar to 39%) of the total grids. The proposed algorithm may be used for drought and flood monitoring over any geographical terrain.
机译：新算法的命题促进了弱/强季风的可预测性，这些季风分别导致干旱/洪水事件，在印度夏季季风降雨（ISMR）中。该方法估计从降雨系列提取的极端值中的偏斜高斯内核分布，使用自靴子获得干旱和洪水年的置信水平。在代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5场景下，使用所选择的耦合模型型阶段5（CMIP5）模拟，所提出的方法检测到印度的极端干旱（99％的置信水平）可能发生在21世纪初的2024年和2027年世纪。类似地，2031,2032和2033年的模型项目将是最突出的洪水年。预计干旱发生的可能性可能会增加16％。相比之下，预计在预计的全球变暖下将在未来减少洪水事件11％。值得注意的是，我们的分析表明，23.4％的网格覆盖与印度地区的30％相似，可能会在2020-2029期间遇到干旱频率和强度，主要涵盖东北，中央和印度南部。此外，在此期间，北方的东北部和一些部分将经历超过29.6％的洪水（其覆盖率类似于39％）总网格。该算法可用于任何地形地形的干旱和洪水监测。

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