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Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities

机译:将信念推断为主观不正确的概率

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We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.
机译:我们提出一种估计主观信念的方法,将其视为主观概率分布。关键的见解是将信念表征为一个参数,该参数可以从定义明确的实验任务中的观察选择中估算出来,并将该参数估算为随机系数。实验任务包括一系列标准彩票选择,其中假定受试者使用常规风险态度选择一种或另一种彩票,然后进行一系列下注选择,其中向受试者展示一系列提供赔率的赌注受试者对此有信心的某些事件的结果。对主体风险态度的了解决定了对主观信念​​的推论。最大模拟似然法用于估计一个结构模型,在该模型中,受试者使用主观信念进行投注。我们提供的证据表明,某些主观概率的确可以最好地描述为具有非零方差的概率分布。

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