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Solving the St. Petersburg Paradox in cumulative prospect theory: the right amount of probability weighting

机译:解决累积前景理论中的圣彼得堡悖论:正确的概率权重

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摘要

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) does not explain the St. Petersburg Paradox. We show that the solutions related to probability weighting proposed to solve this paradox, (Blavatskyy, Management Science 51:677-678,2005; Rieger and Wang, Economic Theory 28:665-679,2006) have to cope with limitations. In that framework, CPT fails to accommodate both gambling and insurance behavior. We suggest replacing the weighting functions generally proposed in the literature by another specification which respects the following properties: (1) to solve the paradox, the slope at zero has to be finite. (2) to account for the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, the probability weighting has to be strong enough.
机译:累积预期理论(CPT)不能解释圣彼得堡悖论。我们表明,与概率加权有关的解决方案建议用来解决这一悖论(Blavatskyy,管理科学51:677-678,2005; Rieger和Wang,经济理论28:665-679,2006)必须克服局限性。在这种框架下,CPT无法兼顾赌博和保险行为。我们建议用尊重以下特性的另一个规范代替文献中通常提出的加权函数:(1)为了解决矛盾,在零处的斜率必须是有限的。 (2)考虑到风险态度的四重模式,概率加权必须足够强。

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