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A Characterization For The Spherical Scoring Rule

机译：球形计分规则的刻画

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摘要

Strictly proper scoring rules have been studied widely in statistical decision theory and recently in experimental economics because of their ability to encourage assessors to honestly provide their true subjective probabilities. In this article, we study the spherical scoring rule by analytically examining some of its properties and providing some new geometric interpretations for this rule. Moreover, we state a theorem which provides an axiomatic characterization for the spherical scoring rule. The objective of this analysis is to provide a better understanding of one of the most commonly available scoring rules, which could aid decision makers in the selection of an appropriate tool for evaluating and assessing probabilistic forecasts.
机译：严格正确的评分规则已在统计决策理论和实验经济学中得到广泛研究，因为它们能够鼓励评估者诚实地提供其真实的主观概率。在本文中，我们通过分析检查球的评分规则的某些属性并为此规则提供一些新的几何解释，从而研究了球评分规则。此外，我们陈述了一个定理，该定理为球面评分规则提供了公理化的表征。此分析的目的是更好地了解一种最常用的评分规则，这可以帮助决策者选择合适的工具来评估和评估概率预测。

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