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首页> 外文期刊>Theory and Decision >SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY WEIGHTING AND THE DISCOVERED PREFERENCE HYPOTHESIS
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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY WEIGHTING AND THE DISCOVERED PREFERENCE HYPOTHESIS

机译：主观概率加权与优先偏好假说

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摘要

Numerous studies have convincingly shown that prospect theory can better describe risky choice behavior than the classical expected utility model because it makes the plausible assumption that risk aversion is driven not only by the degree of sensitivity toward outcomes, but also by the degree of sensitivity toward probabilities. This article presents the results of an experiment aimed at testing whether agents become more sensitive toward probabilities over time when they repeatedly face similar decisions, receive feedback on the consequences of their decisions, and are given ample incentives to reflect on their decisions, as predicted by Plott's Discovered Preference Hypothesis (DPH). The results of a laboratory experiment with N = 62 participants support this hypothesis. The elicited subjective probability weighting function converges significantly toward linearity when respondents are asked to make repeated choices and are given direct feedback after each choice. Such convergence to linearity is absent in an experimental treatment where respondents are asked to make repeated choices but do not experience the resolution of risk directly after each choice, as predicted by the DPH.
机译：大量研究令人信服地表明，远景理论比经典预期效用模型能更好地描述风险选择行为，因为它提出了合理的假设，即风险规避不仅取决于对结果的敏感性程度，而且还取决于对概率的敏感性程度。本文介绍了一项实验结果，旨在测试代理商在反复面对相似的决策时是否随着时间的推移对概率变得更加敏感，是否收到决策后果的反馈，以及是否有足够的动力去反思自己的决策，如普洛特的发现偏好假设（DPH）。 N = 62名参与者的实验室实验结果支持了这一假设。当要求受访者做出重复选择并在每次选择后都得到直接反馈时，所引起的主观概率加权函数会朝着线性方向显着收敛。在DPH预测的实验方法中，这种线性度的收敛是不存在的，在实验方法中，要求受访者做出重复选择，但每次选择后都没有直接解决风险的方法。

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