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首页> 外文期刊>Theory and Decision >THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS IN SEQUENTIAL PARIMUTUEL BETTING WITH NON-EXPECTED UTILITY PLAYERS
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THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS IN SEQUENTIAL PARIMUTUEL BETTING WITH NON-EXPECTED UTILITY PLAYERS

机译：与非预期效用玩家在序贯惯常投注中的最爱-长跑偏向

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摘要

This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite-longshot bias―according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply―are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.
机译：本文分析了一个顺序赛马投注的模型，描述为两马比赛，其中有有限数量的噪音投注者和有限数量的策略性和对称通知投注者。对于最喜欢的人赢得比赛的通用客观概率，特征在于独特的子博弈完美平衡。此外，针对“偏爱远射偏见”提供了两种解释-根据哪种偏爱赢得的频率高于市场对他们获胜机会的估计。结果表明，这种强大的异常经验规律性可能是由于交易成本的存在和/或战略投注者对概率的主观态度所致。

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