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首页> 外文期刊>Theory and Decision >CONDORCET'S PARADOX AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ITS OCCURRENCE: DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES ON BALANCED PREFERENCES
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CONDORCET'S PARADOX AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ITS OCCURRENCE: DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES ON BALANCED PREFERENCES

机译:公寓的悖论及其发生的可能性:对平衡偏好的不同看法

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摘要

Many studies have considered the probability that a pairwise majority rule (PMR) winner exists for three candidate elections. The absence of a PMR winner indicates an occurrence of Condorcet's Paradox for three candidate elections. This paper summarizes work that has been done in this area with the assumptions of: Impartial Culture, Impartial Anonymous Culture, Maximal Culture, Dual Culture and Uniform Culture. Results are included for the likelihood that there is a strong winner by PMR, a weak winner by PMR, and the probability that a specific candidate is among the winners by PMR. Closed form representations are developed for some of these probabilities for Impartial Anonymous Culture and for Maximal Culture. Consistent results are obtained for all cultures. In particular, very different behaviors are observed for odd and even numbers of voters. The limiting probabilities as the number of voters increases are reached very quickly for odd numbers of voters, and quite slowly for even numbers of voters. The greatest likelihood of observing Condorcet's Paradox typically occurs for small numbers of voters. Results suggest that while examples of Condorcet's Paradox are observed, one should not expect to observe them with great frequency in three candidate elections.
机译:许多研究都考虑了三项候选人选举中成对多数票制(PMR)获胜者的可能性。没有PMR获胜者表明发生了三次候选人选举中的Condorcet悖论。本文总结了在以下领域的假设已完成的工作:公正文化,公正匿名文化,最大文化,双重文化和统一文化。结果包括以下几项:PMR有强者获胜,PMR有弱者获胜以及PMR获胜者中有特定候选人的可能性。针对公正匿名文化和最大文化中的某些概率,开发了封闭形式的表示形式。对于所有文化都获得一致的结果。特别是,对于奇数和偶数选民,观察到非常不同的行为。当选民人数奇数时,达到选民人数增加的极限概率非常快,而对于偶数选民来说,则很慢地达到极限概率。观察孔多塞悖论的最大可能性通常发生在少数选民身上。结果表明,虽然观察到了Condorcet悖论的例子,但不应期望在三个候选选举中都频繁地观察到它们。

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